Careium: The pressure valve starting to open - ABG
* Strong growth, margin squeeze softer than expected * We raise our '26-'28 EBIT estimates by 3-4% * Share is trading at 13x-8x '26e-'28e EV/EBIT
A beat on all accounts
ANNONS
Q2 was a strong quarter in terms of growth, with SEK 251m in sales, representing 26% organic growth. This was ~10% above our expectations. Careium also delivered an EBIT margin of 6%, which was 1.5pp above our estimated 4.5% and resulted in an EBIT beat of ~50% (SEK 15m vs. estimated 10m). Q2'25 supplied a light comp (sales -9% y-o-y), but we are impressed by the cost control. All regions showed strong growth, with the Nordics being the weakest link at 14%. The gross margin was weighed down by the phasing in of a new, large, Norwegian contract and a 5.5m installation project in the UK, connected to the A2D transformation. Opex grew 18% in the quarter, mainly on SD&M as well as continued high R&D costs.
H1 held the line, H2 should push forward
Careium had previously guided for margin pressure in H1, and hinted towards a normalisation in H2. We do not believe the company will report H2 EBIT margins in line with e.g. 2024 (10%), but as the margin pressure from the onboarding of the Norwegian contract should be mostly over and Careium has taken steps to improve its underlying profitability, we believe it can deliver an H2 EBIT margin of 9%. For reference, the H2 margin in 2025 was 6%, mainly due to a very soft Q4'25.
Solid outlook - we raise EBIT
We raise '26e-'28e sales by 3-4% on the back of the report and updated FX movements. Our '26e-'28e EBIT estimates are also up 3-4%, as we do not make significant changes to our margin assumptions. Our EPS estimates are, however, lifted by 11-5% due to lower than expected interest payments in recent quarters. Our estimates imply '26e-'28e sales and adj. EBIT CAGRs of 9% and 25%. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 13x-8x '26e-'28e EV/EBIT. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 20-34.
