* No machine deliveries in Q2, but two machine orders de-risk '26e
* Announced repeat order from LINDEBERG worth EUR 1-1.5m
Q2 expectations
We expect Q2 sales of SEK 16m (6.5m), driven by Coating Services (SEK 14m) and Aftermarket (SEK 2m), with no machine deliveries scheduled in the quarter (HJWAVE's IC500 is to be delivered in Q3'26). Following the customer-specific delays in Coating Services in Q1, which management attributed to supply chain timing rather than weaker underlying demand, we look for a normalisation in service activity. On adj. EBIT, we forecast SEK -8m (-16m). We expect the company to end Q2 with a cash position of SEK 14m (SEK 18m at end-Q1).
Estimate changes and outlook
We lower '26e sales by 8%, mainly as we had modelled an IC2000 delivery in our estimates, while the Lindberg order announced in May was for an IC500, which carries a lower price tag. That said, our two forecast machine deliveries for '26e are now both backed by firm orders following the HJWAVE IC500 order in April (~EUR 1.5m) and the Lindberg order (EUR 1-1.5m). At its capital market update in November, the company guided for orders within all four business areas in '26. The two orders received cover two of these areas (electronics and decorative), and we await commentary on momentum and pipeline in the remaining areas in the Q2 report before revisiting our estimates.
Waiting for order conversion
At Q1, management noted a clear pickup in customer dialogue following China's hydrogen pilot programme announcement in March, though not yet in production volumes. Q2 is the first full quarter under the new programme, and we will be listening for whether the increased dialogue is translating into concrete orders, on both PVD systems and Coating Services. On SOFC, progress continues via the Ceres collaboration, where the timing of a first system order remains uncertain. The company is currently trading at 4.1x-2.8 '26e-'28e EV/sales vs. peers at 3.0-0.9x.
