Catella: Divestment fuels stronger finish to the year - ABG
* Q4 boosted by Valuation France divestment * We cut 2026e-27e EBIT by 6-8% * 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x, with easy comps
ANNONS
Q4'25e boosted by divestment of Catella Valuation Advisory
For the Q4’25 report (due 17 February), we expect EBIT of SEK 101m (63m) and that transaction activity has improved y-o-y in Q4, a sign of positive momentum slowly building up. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be flat q-o-q at SEK 161bn, burdened by FX headwinds in the quarter. We expect the segment to deliver an operating profit of SEK 39m (34m), a level in-line whit what we have seen throughout 2025. The stronger quarterly result for the group in Q4 is primarily driven by the Catella Valuation Advisory SAS divestment announced in mid-November, which we expect will contribute SEK 50m to Catella shareholders' EBIT and boost the Corporate Finance business area. In terms of capital repatriation, we expect Catella to almost double its dividend, given its strong capitalisation, and we forecast a DPS of SEK 1.7 (0.9) to be announced in the quarter.
Our EBIT estimates cut by 6-8% for 2026e-27e
In this preview we have updated our FX assumptions and included the divestment of Valuation France and reduced our variable income assumptions within Investment Management for 2026e-27e. In sum, our 2025 EBIT is raised by 14% driven by the divestment, while our 2026e and 2027e EBIT is cut by 6-8%.
2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x with a 6-8% dividend yield
Catella has many attractive fundamentals, in our view, including a strong balance sheet, an impressive track record within Investment Management and intriguing own-property investments. Applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at a 2026e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-7x and offers an appealing dividend yield of 6-8% p.a. across our forecast horizon. In addition, we argue that the transaction activity outlook is positive from here and the comps are easy.
