* Strong Q3: EBIT SEK 48m (vs. SEK -23m Q3'24) * We raise our EPS assumptions, but cut '25e EBIT on lower GMs * Strong near-term outlook, 33x-14x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT Strong Q3 on the cards The SEK 1bn order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) has been a real game-changer for Ovzon. The contract was signed in May and only contributed ~SEK 65m in Q2, according to our estimates. With the continued deployment of the contract in Q3, we expect strong results in the near future. We forecast Q3 sales of SEK 203m, comprising SEK 160m in SATCOM sales and SEK 43m in terminal sales. We expect gross margins to continue to expand, although the SATCOM mix will likely be more negative in Q3 than in Q2, as Ovzon temporarily decided to use capacity on its proprietary satellite (Ovzon-3); we expect future capacity to come mainly from third-party suppliers, in line with the initial details of the FMV contract. Still, these dynamics mean that there is untapped potential for more Ovzon-3-related orders. Visibility on the timing of such signings is low, but we are modelling a gradual ramp-up in Q4 and into 2026e. Finally, we anticipate significant operational leverage driven by improved sales to lead to Q3 EBIT of SEK 48m, up from SEK -23m in Q3'24. Estimate changes We leave our '26-'27 EBIT estimates intact, but cut '25e EBIT by 15% (-8% on EBITDA) due to lower gross margin assumptions on the leased capacity. However, we raise our EPS forecasts following the new credit facility, where Ovzon has reduced interest rates on its debt to ~4.5% (3m STIBOR + 220-290bps) from ~15%. Positive momentum continues Recent order signings, combined with the currently increasing demand for SATCOM, make us optimistic about Ovzon's future. We forecast 2026 EBIT of SEK 280m (up from SEK 129m in 2025) coupled with FCF of SEK 371m. We do not include any additional proprietary satellites in our forecasts, although we believe these are increasingly likely to be announced.
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