Redeye concludes that Litium delivered a strong second quarter, with ARR crossing the SEK100m threshold for the first time and net sales, gross profit and EBITDA-CAPEX all coming in ahead of our estimates. The quarter's most important development is not the ARR beat itself but the accelerating incremental profitability: EBITDA-CAPEX margin on incremental revenue has risen from -48% in Q4 2025 to 12% in Q1 2026 and 18% in Q2 2026, de-risking the path to sustained positive Cash EBITDA. We trim our near-term ARR and EBITDA-CAPEX estimates marginally to reflect a slightly later ramp of the Monitor partnership, but we nonetheless raise our Base Case to SEK20 (from SEK19) on the back of the improving profitability trajectory and a modest uptick in Nordic SaaS peer multiples. We maintain a positive stance on Litium heading into the second half of the year.
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