* '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 2-5% * Cost savings aid EBITA but slow org. growth * '26e EV/EBITA of ~8x, nearly 50% below peers What to expect in Q3'25 We expect sales of SEK 2,025m for Q3'25, implying ~7% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a ~3% FX headwind. We expect the gross margin to improve by ~60bps given that freight rates, which are often transacted in USD, have decreased somewhat. The cost rationalisation programme, which should save Humble ~SEK 80m per year, will carry a restructuring cost of ~SEK 35m in Q3'25, meaning that we anticipate adj. EBITA of SEK 160m, which implies 5% y-o-y growth and a margin of 7.9%. However, the restructuring cost does not include any potential severance for the former CEO, Mr. Petrén, who departed recently. '25e-'27e adj. EBITA down 2-5% Going into Q3 reporting season, we cut '26e-'27e sales by 2-3% and '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-5%. Our updated assessment on growth entails a future in which the new CEO (recruitment process ongoing) focuses more on the cost base than on organic growth opportunities. Moreover, we take a somewhat more cautious approach with regard to incorporating the incremental cost savings, as our previous estimates had already presumed more cost efficiency in the organisation. From a capital allocation standpoint, we understand that the company is open to exploring options to divest assets or change the ownership structure of certain subsidiaries. In our view, the less-complex options tend to be the best, especially for a group that consists of nearly 50 different subsidiaries. Valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading around 8x '26e EV/EBITA, while peers are trading at an average of 15x despite growing sales at a slower rate.
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