Humble Group: Red Sea prevents gross margin expansion - ABG
'25e-'26e EBITA down 7-5% Freight rate normalisation required for better gross margins '25e EV/EBITA ~9x, ~40% below peers
ANNONS
What to expect in Q4'24
We expect sales of SEK 2,102m for Q4'24, implying 8% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a 0.7% FX tailwind. We anticipate a gross margin of 31%, which should be somewhat pressured by elevated freight rates. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 157m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 7.5%. We anticipate a significant working capital release in Q4, to the tune of SEK 130m.
