Swissnet: FY25 falls well short of guidance; rating suspended

Swissnet: FY25 falls well short of guidance; rating suspended - NuWays AG Research

Swissnet has published its FY25 report, two months past the statutory deadline and materially below the guided range. More pressing than the miss itself is the liquidity position it leaves behind: cash down to CHF 0.5m from CHF 4.4m, tangible equity at CHF -10.7m, and an explicit material uncertainty over going concern.

FY25 sales came in at CHF 21.0m (eNuW: CHF 26.9m; guidance: CHF 28-30m pro-forma), up 61% yoy but growth being entirely acquired. Swissnet AG, Swissnet ICT and Lokalee consolidated from January, and the mix shifted accordingly with SaaS up 37% to CHF 9.6m and hardware up 88% to CHF 11.4m. Gross margin dropped 7.4pp to 58.7% on the higher hardware share. The more telling cut here lies in the half-year split. H2 sales fell to CHF 9.7m from CHF 11.3m, with the weakness in DACH (-25% sequentially) rather than in the international build-out to.

Combined with the going concern stated at risk, we are therefore placing our rating and PT under review. Our PT is DCF-derived, and none of the required inputs can be set with confidence. A DCF needs a cash flow stream we can forecast, and that is exactly what is in doubt here. Net financial debt of CHF 12.6m is of the same order as the market cap, so small changes in enterprise value swing the equity value disproportionately. And with the marginal cost of debt at 18%, any WACC we pick is a bet on the refinancing, the terms of which would also reset the share count. We will revisit on the H1'26 figures (due October) and on a FY25 basis restated into the new segment structure.

Beyond that, a rating reinstatement rests on evidence that the cost programme lands in reported rather than adjusted earnings, that MENA receivables convert to cash, that the loan conversion completes and that the control findings are remediated. Management's own stated 2026 priority of translating growth into a visibly improved reported result should be the right test.

Swissnet: FY25 falls well short of guidance; rating suspended - NuWays AG Research

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