Suominen lowered its guidance today and now expects 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be lower compared to 2024 (down from “to improve" from EUR 17m in 2024). Rationalises the change with slower volume recovery and two major incidents affecting US operations through extended production line shutdown and added costs, and disposal of inventories due to flooding in storage area. Q3 net sales were EUR 99.8m (8% below post-Q2 Vara consensus) while adjusted EBITDA was EUR 3.4m (29% below consensus). Q1-Q3 adjusted EBITDA is now EUR 10.9m and given guidance for lower adjusted EBITDA, it seems that Q4 performance is still expected to be remain weak by the company. Hence, initially, we expect 2026 consensus EBITDA estimates to decline more than 10%.
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