We trim adjusted EBITA by 2% for 2025E-27E on the back of recent FX movements. We take a slightly more cautious view on short-term demand, pencilling in a 15% y/y adjusted EBITA decline for Q3. Although there is clearly demand uncertainty, exacerbated by the recent geopolitical environment, we pencil in a positive inflection point for EBITA for Q4 2025, supported by margin-enhancing initiatives in recent years. We see a likelihood of further finetuning, as the company has overcapacity in several regions. We believe volumes will return, though, so we remain positive towards the longer-term margin trajectory, particularly related to Supply Chain Solutions (SCS). We pencil in a 130bp group margin uplift between 2025 and 2027. As such, we look for a 14% adjusted EBITA CAGR for 2025E-27E. We set a lower multiples-based fair value range of SEK 49-91 (52-98), implying 2026E EV/EBITA of 10-11x.
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