Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Nilörn: Small weaknesses adding up - ABG

Solid order bookings given a cautious market
The Q2 report showed lower sales than we expected, as well as lower adj. EBIT due to higher-than-expected opex and FX effects. FX had an impact on Q2 of SEK -22m. Nilörn has commented on a shift in consumer order patterns, with cautious customers placing orders later in the season than in previous years. The outdoor segment continues to show a solid recovery, but the luxury market is still suffering, leading to a decrease in the packaging segment. Order bookings decreased slightly by 1% y-o-y to SEK 205m, which was slightly lower than our expected range (SEK 210-220m). Despite this slight miss, order bookings are encouraging given the softness in the luxury market and historical average of SEK ~190m. Moreover, the gross margin was robust thanks to sourcing efforts and a favourable product mix (i.e. less packaging).

We cut EBIT estimates on elevated opex
We leave our '25e-'27e sales estimates relatively unchanged (-1%), but cut adj. EBIT by 18-6% on the back of the report. While we keep our GM assumptions, we cut earnings estimates due to a higher run-rate for opex going forward, and anticipate that these elevated levels will persist as Nilörn continues to invest in Bangladesh and Portugal. In the coming years, Nilörn will undergo an investment cycle. Therefore, margins should reach the 10-12% target range in '27e, as capacity is filled. We believe that Nilörn will be able to reach its EBIT margin target of >10% by '27e. We maintain our positive view of the company and believe that it can generate a >20% incremental return on invested capital in the coming years.

Valuation
Our new estimates imply that Nilörn is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT of ~8x, which is ~10% below the five-year median for Nilörn and ~25% below peers.

Finwire / Börsvärlden

Publicerad 16 July 2025, 16:55

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