StrongPoint: One step at a time  - ABG
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StrongPoint: One step at a time - ABG

Q2 EBITDA of NOK 7m
StrongPoint showed a positive development with sales +18% y-o-y, mostly driven by solid performances in UK & Ireland, Sweden and the Baltics. Revenues came in at NOK 350m, +6% vs. our estimate of NOK 330m. GP was +9% vs. our estimate, giving a solid GM of 43.7% (ABGSCe 42.5%). EBITDA landed at NOK 7m vs. ABGSCe at NOK 3m, supported by higher gross profit and the absence of a non-recurring cost incurred last year as part of a headcount and cost reduction initiative. The EBITDA margin was 2.1% (vs. ABGSCe 0.9%), marking a y-o-y improvement (Q2'24 0.3%), while the H1'25 EBITDA margin was 2.5%. EPS came in at NOK -0.07 vs. ABGSCe at NOK -0.19. Cash flow from operations was NOK 20m vs NOK 8m in Q1. Net debt came in at NOK 74m vs. NOK 72m in Q1. On the outlook, StrongPoint sees a continued improvement in EBITDA and recurring revenue, and has a long-term ambition of "healthy" revenue growth and an EBITDA margin >10%.

Supportive developments, but not there yet
StrongPoint's recent developments are a step in the right direction, but there is still a way to go. Newly announced customers and product sales are supportive for our estimates, but the margins are still lagging, and we are awaiting further projects and margin improvements. On a positive note, the company has now had four consecutive quarters with positive EBITDA, and we see FY'25e EBITDA at NOK 36m.

Limited underlying changes to our estimates
We make limited changes to our underlying estimates, and now pencil in NOK 1.425bn in sales, NOK 36m in EBITDA and NOK -6m in EBIT. The stock is up ~30% since April (note low volumes) and our DCF points to a target range of NOK 8-18/sh.
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