- Q2 sales 8% below our ests. at SEK 202m, for -9% org. growth - EBIT SEK 10m vs. ABGSCe 18m - Trading at 9x '25e EV/EBITA adj.
ANNONS
Q2: A soft quarter, partly on accounting effects Careium delivered sales of SEK 202m (-8% vs ABGSCe 220m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of -9.3% (-4.5pp vs ABGSCe -4.5%). Sales in Sweden were negatively impacted by the accounting of financial leases, which had an effect of SEK -15m, leading to negative sales growth in the Nordics of 16% y-o-y. Excluding the impact of the classification of financial leases, Nordics net sales would have increased 1.4% and group net sales would have decreased 5.4% y-o-y (vs. reported -12%). Segment wise, service sales was SEK 148m (-9% vs ABGSCe 162m), and product sales was SEK 54m (-7% vs ABGSCe 58m). The gross margin increased to 43% (-1pp vs ABGSCe 44%), -1.2pp q-o-q and +1.6pp y-o-y). Opex was roughly in line with estimates, and came in at SEK -78m (-2% vs ABGSCe -79m). EBIT amounted to SEK 10m (-45% vs ABGSCe 18m), for a margin of 5% (-3pp vs ABGSCe 8%), down 4.6pp vs. 9.5% Q2'24, mainly on lower reported sales and continued growth in R&D.
Cash flow and outlook FCF in Q2 amounted to SEK 1m, below ABGSCe of SEK 5.5m. This is an increase of SEK 0.5m y-o-y and 5.3m q-o-q (0.5m Q2'24 and -4.3m Q1'25). FCF was below our expectations, due to lower than expected EBIT. Tangible capex increased to SEK -19m vs -13.5m in Q2'24, as a lower number of contracts were classified as financial leases. FY'25 outlook remains unchanged, with expected recovery in Sweden in H2 once the Swedish ADDA 2025 framework comes into effect. Additionally, Careium comments that H1'26 should be drastically less affected by the accounting of financial leases, but that we should expect these headwinds to continue during H2'25. We are encouraged by the first recorded order of fixed alarms in France and the previously announced five-year contract with Gloucestershire County Council in the UK, with an expected annual revenue of SEK 6.5m.
Valuation and conference call details On our pre-Q2 estimates, the share is trading at 8.7x-7.3x ‘25-'26e EV/EBITA adj. The negative mechanical effect for consensus '25e-'26e EBIT should be within a high-single-digit range. In addition, we expect more details about Q2 on the conference call at 10.30 CET.
