Incap has guided for net sales to grow by 0-20% for 2025. The midpoint of 10% could be challenging to reach, so we see more downside than upside risk when it comes to the full-year guidance. LSEG Data & Analytics consensus for revenue growth is already at 3.7% for 2025, so a guidance downgrade to flat growth would not be a major disappointment. Moreover, we believe green technology investments will continue in the long term, regardless of weakening political support in the short term. Incap's 2025E-26E P/E and EV/EBIT combined are currently ~20% below the peer group median. However, risks related to flat EBIT and flat net sales y/y for 2025E could hinder multiple expansion in the short term. Our fair value range remains at EUR 12.1-14.8 per share, based on a DCF analysis and backed by a peer group comparison. Marketing material commissioned by Incap.
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