- Occupancy improvement in Q2 - Management open for more accretion - 2025e P/CEPS at 14x, ~12.5% below Swedish office peers
ANNONS
Small estimate revisions Eastnine delivered a Q2 report with rental income ~2% below our estimate, while net financial expenses were lower than we anticipated, taking rec PTP -1% vs ABGSCe. Our top-line estimates do not change materially, however, as the Q2 occupancy increased to 97.1% and the forward-looking earnings capacity rental income came up by >1% q-o-q to EUR 62.5m. The management team says that financing conditions (liquidity, willingness to lend, bank interest, etc.) are "huge" and although it is not all about margins, we believe the average cost of debt will continue down, as Eastnine will refinance some EUR 110m (~22%) of gross IB-debt in H2'25/2026. All in all, we make quite limited estimate changes and continue to be impressed by Eastnine's operational excellence, especially compared to office peers in Sweden.
Another great deal coming? We argue that one of the most interesting takeaways from the Q2 conference call was the management team's firm response on its willingness to move forward with more M&A. Given that the leverage is close to where the company wants it to be (~48% as of Q2), we would not rule out a share-based deal. The share is currently trading at a spot P/NAV of ~0.87x, basically the same valuation as when Eastnine was able to announce the acquisition of Warsaw Unit and partly pay with shares issued at NAV.
2025e P/CEPS at 14x with strong fundamentals The share is trading at a 2025e P/CEPS of ~14x compared to office peers in Sweden (e.g. ATRLJ/CAST/FABG/HUFV/DIOS/PLAZ/WIHL) at an average of ~16x. Occupancy is rock solid at ~97%, we believe the underlying market fundamentals in Eastnine's markets are stronger than in Sweden, and there is further estimate potential on the back of M&A (see more above).
