Trade policy shifts have led to softening cargo demand on a global basis, and hence we lower our full-year estimates for 2025. The Baltic Dry index was down by 39% in Q1 y/y, but Aspo is not greatly exposed to weak spot markets and could find some support from long-term shipment contracts. Weakness in the overall economic environment will affect all of Aspo's segments and a decline in the crude oil price could drag down sales prices for the Telko segment. We believe Aspo could even narrow its full-year guidance by taking down the upper end of the current EUR 35-45m EBITA range. Our estimates still point to a fair value range of EUR 6.3-7.7 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. -Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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