Zeal Network: On a winning streak; chg. est. & PT - NuWays
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Zeal Network: On a winning streak; chg. est. & PT - NuWays

A favourable jackpot environment should drive a strong Q2 and, on early Q3 data, looks set to continue; the newly announced SevenCanyon acquisition adds a cheap, well-understood growth leg in the UK; and the July loosening of German online slot stakes provides a further regulatory tailwind.

Jackpots are back as a tailwind, and this time Lotto did the heavy lifting. Total Eurojackpot stakes rose c. 3% yoy in Q2, with two peak jackpots, the same as a year ago. The real swing came from Lotto 6/49: stakes jumped c. 23% yoy as the lottery reached its € 50m cap for the first time under the current jackpot rules and did not let go, producing 11 peak-jackpot draws over the quarter. Remarkable for a lottery that typically loses ground to Eurojackpot given its lower headline and second-tier prizes, and its extended run at the cap materially lifted market activity: in aggregate, the German lottery market grew c. 11% yoy, the support that Q1 lacked. In its lottery business, ZEAL is seen to outgrow the market by c. 13pp (eNuW), driven by ongoing online penetration, share gains and stronger customer activation in high-jackpot phases, where it can deploy its full marketing playbook as well as support from growth in proprietary raffles.

BUY, PT € 83 (old: € 80), based on DCF. Estimate and PT changes reflect the accretive acquisition.
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