Svedbergs: Building an empire, cabinet by cabinet - ABG
* We forecast 7% EBITA growth in Q3'25
* M&A could add 30-40% to '27e EBITA
* We raise our fair value range to SEK 50-66 (46-62)
ANNONS
We push Swedish recovery further out, UK remains solid
The soft trend for Swedish build starts extended into Q2. This means we expect further delays to the volume recovery in the Svedbergs and Macro Design brands. Market indicators for other parts of the business, however, appear more supportive. UK-based CPA forecasts published in July suggested stronger 2026 market growth than those published in April. Overall, we assess the outlook to be unchanged vs. Q2. We forecast 4% organic growth in Q3 for net sales of SEK 516m, and another quarter of gross margin expansion (+2pp y-o-y), driven by price adjustments in Roper Rhodes. Some of this gross margin uplift is offset by higher selling expenses, for a Q3e EBITA margin expansion of 90bp and EBITA of SEK 76m, +7% y-o-y.
A deeper dive into the M&A opportunity
In this note, we evaluate Svedbergs Group's M&A affinity. We conclude that it acquires companies at broadly attractive multiples (6-8x LTM multiples L5Y) and has delivered consistent profitability improvements in acquired companies. The most recent transaction, Thebalux, was made in late 2023, and we see ND/EBITDA has since declined to 1.5x in Q2'25. We estimate Svedbergs could add 30-40% to '26e-'27e EBITA through M&A, assuming transaction multiples of 6-8x. In this M&A scenario, Svedbergs' implied '26e multiples are 3-9% lower.
Share trading at 10-8x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA
The share is trading at 10-8x '25e-'27e EBITA on our updated estimates, which compares to its historical trading range of 7-11x NTM EBITA. On '26e EBITA, Svedbergs' 9x is 15% below the average EV/EBITA of our Nordic home improvement peer group. Our now-higher fair value range (due to rollover effects and better visibility into the M&A opportunity) of SEK 50-66 (46-62) corresponds to 9-12x NTM EV/EBITA.
