* Q4 EBITDA of NOK 5m * Awaiting improved markets * '26e-'27e estimates down – fair value range of NOK 8-18.
ANNONS
Q4 EBITDA of NOK 5m
The last couple of years have not been a period of smooth sailing for StrongPoint, as project delays and long decision-making cycles have hampered momentum and weighed on profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was NOK 12m in '24, down from NOK 80m in '22. It remains a waiting game, but performance has improved in '25, with Q3 YTD EBITDA of NOK 31m. We model Q4 revenues of ~NOK 350m (up ~3% y-o-y), with a gross margin of 42.3% and EBITDA of ~NOK 5m. This implies '25 EBITDA of ~NOK 36m, up 3x from '24 adj. EBITDA.
Awaiting improved markets
The EBITDA margin is still under pressure at ~2.7% compared to the company's long-term target of >10%. Although we believe the long-term target will remain in place, we expect StrongPoint wil provide a new strategy update in H1'26 for its short-term targets. Previously, StrongPoint targeted '25 revenues of NOK 1.5bn-1.8bn and an EBITDA margin of 4-6%. With these targets out of range, coupled with still challenging market conditions, it is likely that the company will adopt a more cautious view on its short-term targets, meaning a modest '26 target is likely. We model a '26e EBITDA margin of 2.6%, for EBITDA of ~NOK 39m, or 50% below the previous '25 target.
'26e-'27e down
Our '26e-'27e estimates are down, as we lift opex somewhat and factor in some short-term drag from the end of the Pricer partnership. StrongPoint has entered a new partnership with Vusion Group, which we understand provides more add-ons and upselling opportunities. However, in the short term, Strongpoint will lose some of its recurring revenue base. With more cautious estimates and a long-term EBITDA margin of ~8% (vs. >10% target), our DCF points to an equity value of NOK 645m, and we see fair range of NOK 8-18/sh.
