Stenhus Fastigheter: Delivering ahead of expectations - ABG
* EC IFPM p.s. +7% q-o-q * Renewed mandate for 10% SBBs * 2026e P/CEPS 10x vs. coverage average of 15x
ANNONS
Q1 beat on stronger top line
Stenhus delivered Q1 results with rec. PTP 14% ahead of our forecast and 9% ahead of Infront consensus, driven by a stronger top line (somewhat boosted by re-invoiced costs) and IFPM contribution from JVs. The latter was driven by an increased ownership in Krona Public Real Estate in the quarter. Central administration costs were slightly lower than we expected while net financials were in line with our forecast. The earnings capacity NOI and IFPM increased by 0.4% q-o-q, occupancy was flat q-o-q at 94.6%, while net letting was negative by SEK 3.3m (prev. +1.2m).
Accretive SBBs boost CEPS profile
Extensive SBBs were carried out in the quarter, ~6% of the outstanding shares as of Q4, whereas we modelled ~4% for H1'26e. This, combined with the stronger than expected Q1 results, drives our CEPS revision of +10% for 2026e. Higher interest rate assumptions in our outlook mean more muted CEPS revisions for 2027e-2028e. With the share trading at P/EPRA NRV of 0.6x and an implied yield of ~7%, SBBs are clearly accretive, and management is evaluating further SBBs, with a renewed mandate to acquire 10% of the outstanding shares. However, the net LTV stands at 55% (53% in Q4'25), in line with the long-term financial target. We have the impression that the company aims to have a net LTV of 55-60%, meaning there is less leverage headroom for material net M&A and/or SBBs near-term.
2026e P/CEPS 10x vs sector at 15x
The share is trading at a 2026e P/CEPS of 10x vs. the sector average of 15x, and a P/EPRA NRV of 0.6x compared to the sector average of 0.8x. Furthermore, we forecast average CEPS growth of ~10% in '26e-'27e vs. the sector at ~5%, with some potential to drive earnings further.
