Skolon: Sales miss but profitability is improving - ABG
* Q3 sales 11% below ABGSCe SEK 75m * Gross margin up 4.4pp, likely due to favourable mix * Likely modestly positive EBITDA consensus estimate revisions
ANNONS
Q3'26 report
Skolon reported net sales of SEK 67m (-11% vs ABGSCe 75m), y-o-y growth of 6%. ARPPU came in at SEK 198, up from SEK 179 last year but slightly down from SEK 201 in Q2, which Skolon attributes to periodisation effects, as revenue from newly added users is recognised over the contract period and will likely only have full impact in the coming quarters. Gross margin (less capitalised work) came in at 25% (ABGSCe 21%), clearly above our expectations and up from 21% in Q3'25. While sales were weaker than we expected, profitability was strong. EBITDA was SEK 5m (ABGSCe 4m), up from SEK 3m last year, corresponding to the strongest margin ever at 8%.
Thoughts and outlook
We believe the sales miss is mainly a question of timing rather than demand. A large share of the users added in the quarter, notably in Norway and the UK, came on board late in the period, meaning that the revenue effect should land mainly in Q4 and into '27. On profitability, we think the quarter shows that the business model is starting to scale, with improved EBITDA in Sweden. The international markets are still in an establishment phase, and as the user base matures, we believe international margins can gradually move closer to the Swedish level, although this will take time. With FTEs broadly unchanged at 46 (44) while the user base has grown, we believe additional users should carry a high incremental margin.
Consensus estimate revisions and valuation
The share is down 28% YTD and is trading at 8-5x '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit on our unrevised estimates. Following the report, we believe that consensus could lower sales estimates but increase EBITDA by low single-digits.
