Infrea: One more quarter before joining forces - ABG
* The merger in focus for now * Q3’26e sales of SEK 516m and adj. EBITA of SEK 39m * Infrea's share price pegged to Netel's
ANNONS
Merger moves towards the finish line
The merger with Netel remains the main event. Infrea has applied for delisting, with merger registration expected on 4 November and the last trading day provisionally set for 3 November. Both remain subject to the remaining completion conditions. Following shareholder approval in August, focus now shifts towards integration and delivery of the targeted SEK 50m in annual cost synergies within 12–24 months. The broader portfolio and greater scale offer opportunities, although execution of Netel’s turnaround remains key.
Q3 expectations
We forecast Q3 sales of SEK 516m and adj. EBITA of SEK 39m, implying a 7.5% margin. In Land & Construction, we expect sales growth of 5% and an EBITA margin of 4.5% (3.3%), while Paving Services faces tougher comparisons, with sales growth of 3% and a margin of 13.0% (11.5%). Focus will be on project profitability and cash conversion ahead of the merger. Our standalone forecasts imply ’26e/’27e adj. EBITA of SEK 59m/75m, corresponding to margins of 2.8%/3.4%.
Infrea is pegged to Netel
For now, Infrea's share price is pegged to Netel's, and we have therefore removed our fair value range. The merger's exchange ratio is 17 new Netel shares for every 4 Infrea shares, i.e., 4.25 Netel shares per Infrea share. Netel is at SEK 2.755 per share, implying a value of SEK 11.71 per Infrea share. Netel reports on 28 October and currently has no analyst consensus.
