* We expect 50% organic growth in Q4e * Q4 mix is likely to be somewhat soft * FVR of SEK 30-45 reiterated
ANNONS
Q4 expectations
We expect Q4 sales of SEK 41m, which corresponds to an organic growth rate of 50%. Note that the high growth rate we expect is primarily due to an easy comp from Q4'24. We expect an additional 50k paying users compared to Q3, and anticipate ARPPU to increase to SEK 180. We have lowered our Q4e gross margin (less capitalised work) to 31%, because we expect a meaningful share of the revenue associated with the 50k new paying users in Q4 to phase more revenue into Q1'26 than Q4'25. This means that the revenue mix will be somewhat more tilted toward partner revenues (i.e. low gross margin). Therefore, we expect an EBITDA margin of -4% in Q4e.
FX-driven estimate changes
We make only small adjustments to our estimates, as we cut '26e-'27e sales by 1% due to FX. This translates into our EBITDA estimates coming down 6-3% for the same period. Note that EBITDA is still at a low level in absolute terms. As a reminder, these types of businesses typically reinvest a significant portion of the earnings into the opex base to facilitate growth. From time to time, this growth can be lumpy, and therefore earnings growth can also be lumpy.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit of 7-5x. This is slightly above peers in '27e. However, we expect Skolon to grow >3x faster than the average peer. We maintain our fair value range of SEK 30-45.
