* Mixed Q4 but continued operational leverage * Estimates down on adj. EBIT for '26e-'27e (larger loss) * Fair value range down to SEK 7-14 (9-14)
ANNONS
Lower sales but improving quality of earnings
OssDsign reported a mixed Q4, with sales below expectations but profitability and cost discipline continuing to improve. Sales were SEK 45.1m (-5% vs. ABGSCe of SEK 47.3m), corresponding to organic growth of 24% (ABGSCe 27%). H2'25 sales were negatively impacted by a slower pace of recruiting and onboarding of sales representatives, which now has been addressed. Adj. EBIT came in at SEK -9.4m (-2% vs. ABGSCe of SEK -9.2m), driven by lower sales, as both the gross margin and opex developed better than expected. The gross margin strengthened to 96.3% (ABGSCe 95.5%), while sales commissions and fees declined to 47.6% of sales (ABGSCe 51.5%), which we view as positive. EBIT was distorted by SEK 12m in one-off CEO transition costs booked as NRI. OCF was SEK -16.9m, but SEK -8.9m adjusted for one-offs, which we find reasonable given the current sales ramp-up.
Estimate changes
The company reiterated its mid-term targets of sales >SEK 400m by 2028 and positive EBIT and cash flow in the second half of the strategy period, while providing no FY'26 guidance. Importantly, we believe that with a new US-based CEO in place, OssDsign can accelerate sales in the US according to plan and focus on continued operational improvements. Following Q4, we see no material change to the case, leaving our operational assumptions largely intact, while updating FX.
Fair value range down to SEK 7-14 (9-14)
We continue to believe that OssDsign will be able to ramp up Catalyst sales in the US and drive solid organic growth and turn profitable over time. Nonetheless, based on our revisions, we lower our fair value range to SEK 7-14 (9-14) on the Q4 report. We derive our fair value range using a DCF with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 8.5%.
