* Q3'25 numbers due on 5 November at 07:45 CET
* Adj. EBITDA down 1% for '25e-'27e
* Fair value range unchanged at SEK 220-300
Q3'25 expectations
For Q3, we expect Medicover to continue to deliver strong growth in its core regions and drive margin expansion on the back of further improved operational efficiency. In Q2, India returned to double-digit growth, following short-term weakness in Q1, and we believe the region should continue to show strength in Q3. For HS, we pencil in organic growth of 15% with an EBITDAaL margin of 12.2%, as units continue to mature, improving operational scale. The German pricing reform should continue to weigh somewhat on the growth in DS, but we see no reason why Medicover should not continue to prove itself resilient in this quarter, protecting and expanding margins with efficient operations. For the segment, we pencil in organic growth of 14% and an EBITDAaL margin of 13.2%. All in all, we forecast total sales of EUR 603m, driven by 15% organic growth, and adj. EBITDA of EUR 97m, for a margin of 16.2%.
Estimate changes
As announced at the end of '24, Medicover initiated an exit from its insurance operations in Hungary and this was completed at the end of Q2. At the point of the announcement this business contributed revenues of EUR 50m at low margins so the exit should bring no material impact on earnings. As this is now completed we expect to see the impact on net sales over the coming four quarters. Reflecting minor operational changes and recent FX headwinds from INR/EUR, we lower sales by 1% and adj. EBITDA by 1% for '25e-'27e.
Fair value range unchanged at SEK 220-300
Ahead of Q3, we leave our fair value range unchanged at SEK 220-300. We derive our range from the trading multiples of two peer groups, one with healthcare providers in developing countries and one in developed countries, alongside a DCF. The range corresponds to a '25e EV/EBITDA of 12x-15x.
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