Etteplan released a profit warning due to persistently weak market conditions. The trade war further slowed down the market in the quarter and resulted in suspensions, postponements and even cancellations of projects that were already agreed upon. One of the areas of interest in the coming report will be the extent and prevalence of these project cancellations. While weak, we estimate that the company’s performance has been in line with the market as Etteplan’s public peers have generally reported weak earnings and continued weak demand outlook. Looking forward, the US and EU trade agreement alleviates uncertainty which could lead to the resumption of the postponed investment decisions during the second half and 2026. In addition, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI has continued to improve throughout the first half of the year.
Guidance was challenging after a very soft first quarter
Etteplan now estimates its 2025 net sales to be EUR 365-385m (prev. EUR 365-395m) and EBIT to be EUR 19-24m (23-28m). In addition to the guidance revision, the company provided preliminary figures for Q2/25. Revenue is estimated to be roughly EUR 91.4m and EBIT approximately EUR 4.4m. We had previously estimated net sales of EUR 92.3m and EBIT of EUR 6.1m for Q2. For FY25, we estimated net sales of EUR 376m and EBIT of EUR 23m. While Q2 net sales were well in line with our expectations, the profitability fell more than we had estimated. We expect that the profitability has been affected by lower utilization despite the company’s ongoing optimization and cost-cutting actions. Similarly, profitability guidance for the full year was revised more heavily compared to top line. We have updated our model with the preliminary Q2 figures and, despite our previous estimates being within the updated guidance range, we have further lowered our forecasts for the second half of the year as we do not anticipate a significant improvement in market conditions. We now estimate net sales of EUR 372m and EBIT of EUR 20m for FY 2025.
ACCUMULATE with a TP of EUR 11.0 (prev. EUR 11.5)
With the updated estimates for 25-26E, Etteplan is priced at adj. EV/EBITA of 12-11x. The average multiples for 25-26E are rather neutral both on a relative and absolute basis. While long-term potential exists, it is currently obscured by prevailing uncertainty and the possibility of further near-term headwinds. We maintain our rating at ACCUMULATE and revise TP to EUR 11.0 (prev. EUR 11.5).
