Coor: Miss from Denmark, but proposes buybacks - ABG
* Adj. EBITA -4% vs ABGSC and FactSet cons * Denmark remains challenging, will drive 1-2% est cuts * Raises dividend and proposes buyback program
ANNONS
Q4 results
Sales SEK 3,224m (2% vs ABGSC 3,156m and 3% vs cons 3,132m), 1% y-o-y, 3% organic growth (vs ABGSC 1% and cons 0%). Adj. EBITA 160m (-4% vs ABGSC 167m and -4% vs cons 166m) a bit weaker due to a lower-than-expected margin of 5.0% (vs ABGSC 5.3% and cons 5.3%). Margins were weaker in Denmark and Norway, but a bit stronger in Sweden. Group costs were also higher than expected, but partly elevated by reorganisation cost. Cash conversion was weaker in Q4 (15% FCF/EBITA) but strong for the full year (68%), now back to the historical average (64% 2015-2024) after a weaker period in 2023-2024. Dividend was 2.5 per share (cons 2.4) and it also proposes a buyback program after the AGM (no details yet).
Outlook and estimates changes
Management reiterated near-term growth headwinds in Denmark, which was expected. On margins, it said it see upside in 2026. We and FactSet consensus already have 5.4% and 5.5% margin in 2026e, respectively. And given the weaker margin in Q4 (mainly driven by Denmark), we expect consensus to cut margin expectations somewhat, and cut '26e-'27e EBITA by ~1-2%.
Final thoughts
Overall, the report was a bit weaker than expected (margins and cash conversion) and we see some downside to estimates. However, Coor being more forward-leaning on capital repatriation is positive in our view, and should outweigh somewhat lower estimates. Denmark remains challenging, and should be the main reason for estimate cuts. These challenges are known, but the magnitude slightly more than estimated. The share has performed well recently (+27% L3M, +18% YTD, vs OMXSGI +9% and +5%). It is now trading at 11x EBITA on our unrevised 2026 estimates vs Nordic service peers at 11x and ISS at 12x.
