* Careium states that it will not meet FY'25 outlook... * ... Implying FY'25 sales growth of -2% * Mechanical effect on '25 estimates imply 4% cut on EBIT Careium will not meet its '25e outlook Careium has downgraded its full-year outlook, which was previously expecting net sales, profitability and free cash flow before acquisitions to increase compared to 2024. The company now expects Q4'25e sales to be in line with Q4'24, which implies net sales growth of -2% for FY'25. We expect negative FX effects of ~2% for FY'25, implying flat organic sales growth. According to the press release, the operations are developing well, but that it is experiencing longer sales cycles than expected in UK and Germany for product sales. '25e EBIT mechanically down 4% A mechanical cut to our estimates would imply -1% for '25e sales. We expect Q4'24 had sales of SEK 229m, which is 3% below our current estimate of SEK 237m. Careium does not specify an estimate for Q4e operating profit, but keeping all our margin estimates unchanged, the mechanical cut to '25e EBIT is 4% (-10% for Q4e). Note that this does not imply major estimate revisions as our previous estimates did not imply that Careium would increase its operating profit y-o-y in '25. Trading at 8x EV/EBITA adj. '26e On our previous estimates and yesterday's closing price, Careium traded at 10.4x-6.8x EV/EBITA adj. '25e-'27e, and on the implied revisions to our estimates, it trades at 10.8x-7.1x EV/EBITA adj. '25e-'27e. Careium will publish its full-year results on February 11, 2026.
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