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Atvexa: Another quarter of over 15% sales growth - ABG

Slightly weaker margins in Q1 due to seasonality
No acquisitions announced, small est. revisions
DCF valuation range of SEK 71-117 (73-121)

Q1: Sales +15% (14%), adj. EBIT margin -1.7% (-1.2%)
Atvexa reported Q1 sales of SEK 582m (505m), corresponding to 15.3% sales growth of which 5.3% was organic. This was slightly ahead of ABGSCe due to better-than-expected organic growth. Adj. EBIT excl. IFRS 16 was -10m (-6m), equal to a margin of -1.7% (-1.2%). We expected a margin of -1.0%. Atvexa saw some extra costs associated with a higher amount of temporary staff, as sick leave is still elevated due to COVID-19. The company also sold three real estate assets in the quarter, which generated a capital gain of SEK 10m. Despite the usually weaker Q1, the cash flow was supportive and Atvexa ended the quarter with cash of SEK 90m and net debt excl. IFRS 16 of SEK 32m. On top of the financial results, the company also highlighted some quality measures from the last fiscal year, and it is evident to us that Atvexa maintains its strong focus on quality across the board.
Lower margins this year, offset by higher organic growth
We only make minor adjustments to our estimates following the Q1 report. First, we slightly raise our sales forecast on the back of the higher organic growth in Q1. Secondly, for ’21-‘22e, we lower our adj. EBIT margin excl. IFRS 16 by 0.1pp. Historically, the company has tended to announce acquisitions in conjunction with quarterly reports, but no new acquisitions were announced this time. As a consequence, we see FY sales growth coming down to 10.2%.
New CEO in place from February
In November, Atvexa announced that Johan Kyllerman would replace Katarina Sjögren as CEO after a successful 10 years at the helm. Kyllerman’s previous assignment was at Academic Work X, where he was also CEO; he will start his tenure in February. We see potential for Atvexa to continue consolidating the independent school market in Sweden and Norway while stepping up its geographic
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