Despite strong Q1, Atria’s maintains its outlook intact and expects adjusted EBIT to decline from 2023 (after EUR 49m in 2022) while we have modelled EUR 48.5m or 1% decline (Refinitiv consensus EUR 47m, or 4% decline). We note that Atria issued a similar guidance for 2022 and ended up EUR 0.2m below 2021 level in 2022. During 2023, the company will commission a major expansion at its Sköllersta plant in Sweden, and the phased start-up and testing of the new poultry plant in Nurmo will begin. These measures will result in additional costs in 2023. Mathematically, Q1 beat translates into 13-16% upward pressure on consensus EBIT estimates, while we believe revisions to be more muted due to unchanged guidance (Q1 EBIT EUR 8.6m above Q1 2022).
We have a fair value range of EUR 12.4-15.1 per Atria share.
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