We have moved the Fasikan project sale to Q3 from Q2 and our '23e development EBITDA is roughly unchanged. The positive driver comes from assuming higher realised prices in own production for H2'23, which helps to drive an 8% upgrade to the group '23e EBITDA. A key upside potential could come from increased electricity production. As wind conditions have continuously been less supportive compared to the company's budget, we have adjusted forecasts to reflect the recent performance rather than relying on historical wind data, hence should wind conditions improve again, it would support further earnings upgrades. Late-stage portfolio of 1,000 MW
Arise now has a late-stage project portfolio of ~1,000 MW (total portfolio ~5.7 GW), after revising up Finnåberget to 200 MW (120). In addition, the company stated that it will continue to look for investment opportunities to increase the portfolio further. The combination of a growing project portfolio and good earnings from electricity production supports good earnings going forward. The share is trading at 9x P/E on 2023e and we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 65-110, based on a '24e EV/EBITDA of 6-11x vs. a peer group at ~11x.
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