Alligo: Tooled up for continued margin recovery - ABG
* Q3e: Sales SEK 2,346m and adj. EBITA SEK 177m * Estimates trimmed by 4/2% for '26e/'27e * 12x/10x '26e/'27e adj. EBITA
ANNONS
Q3 expectations
We expect the company to deliver sales of SEK 2,346m, up 7% y-o-y (3% organic, 2% FX and 2% M&A). We forecast an adj. EBITA of SEK 177m, +12% y-o-y, for a margin of 7.5%. We are cautiously optimistic on Sweden. While we see tough comps ahead in Q3'26, as Q3'25 marked the start of the recovery in the market and a return to earnings growth after a prolonged downturn, we also see positive data points. The Swedish building material index increased 9.5% in Q2 (its highest since Q1'22) and Swedish manufacturing PMI sat at a solid 58.1 in September. We expect the market in Norway to remain similar to H1, with subdued oil and gas activity (~7% of group sales) as large offshore developments near completion. This should be partly offset by Q3 historically being a seasonally stronger quarter for margins. We remain upbeat on further margin improvement in Finland, driven by a stronger industrial cycle and high defence exposure.
Estimates lowered by 4/2% for '26e/'27e
We make only minor revisions to our sales estimates but lower our '26e-27e adj. EBITA by 4/2%, mainly due to revised margin assumptions for Sweden following a change of analyst. We reduce Sweden’s '26e adj. EBITA margin to 9.2% from 9.7% and trim Finland’s by 12bps. Meanwhile, favourable FX effects lift our Norwegian earnings estimates by 2-4%. We expect activity in Norway to remain low but stable in H2.
Share trading at 12x/10x '26e/'27e adj. EV/EBITA
We continue to see the margin recovery story as appealing and are encouraged by management's communication. The share is currently trading at 11.7/9.6x '26e/'27e adj. EV/EBITA. Returning -6% the L3M, it has underperformed OMXSALLS which has returned +1%. The Q3 report is due on Friday 23 October.
