Alligo: Hesitant Sweden drives earnings miss - ABG
* Sales -1%, adj. EBITA -8% vs. FactSet consensus * Earnings miss driven by Sweden and Norway * Expect consensus adj. EBITA to come down 2%
ANNONS
Q3 results
Sales grew 5% y-o-y (+1% org.) and were 2% below our estimate (1% below FactSet consensus). With a margin of 7.3%, 0.2pp below our estimate (0.6pp below consensus), EBITA adj. was 5% below our estimate (8% below consensus). The miss vs our estimates was driven by a soft Sweden and Norway, while Finland once again improved more than we expected. EBITA included non-recurring items (-4m) with a negative margin impact of 0.2pp. There is a conference call at 11:00 CET: webcast
Estimate changes
We expect consensus adj. EBITA to down by 2% on the miss. Limited outlook comments, apart from a larger strategy update for 2030 which is expected to be finalised this autumn.
Company valuation
Over the past three months, the share has returned -11%, compared to OMX Stockholm Allshare which has been flat. The share is currently trading at 15x-10x '26e-'28e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 14x-9x.
