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4/16/2024 5:20:34 AM - Atria: 2024 likely to be back-end loaded - Nordea - Atria is currently ramping up its EUR 160m poultry investment in Finland. We believe the ramp-up will weigh on Finland's performance in H1, but efficiency gains could become visible in H2. Owing to slowing inflation, grocery market volumes have shown the first signs of improvement, but we expect Foodservice volumes to be burdened, at least in H1. Ahead of the Q1 report, we make minor estimate revisions and derive a slightly lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 11.5-14.0 (11.6-14.2). Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
2/23/2024 6:20:26 AM - Atria: Soft guidance is likely based on a weak H1 - Nordea - Atria's Q4 adjusted EBIT of EUR 9.4m fell clearly short of LSEG Data & Analytics consensus expectations. Atria Finland sales declined in all channels, while the ramp-up of the new poultry unit burdened profitability. The new facility in Nurmo is now fully operational and the company is optimising production. Atria expects adjusted EBIT to decline in 2024, which we view as cautious and likely based on expectations of a weak H1 performance. We expect the company to return to an improving EBIT trend in H2 2024 and we model flat y/y adjusted EBIT for 2024. Atria is expanding its offering through M&A in Sweden and we do not rule out further acquisitions. We derive a lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 11.6-14.2 (13.1-16.0) per Atria share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
2/22/2024 9:02:07 AM - Lantmännen Cerealia säljer färdigrättsbolaget Gooh till Atria - Lantmännen Cerealia genomför en renodling genom att sälja sin enhet för färdigrätter under varumärket Gooh. Köpare är finska matjätten Atria. Affären beräknas godkännas av berörda myndigheter senare i vår.
2/22/2024 7:57:33 AM - Atria: Weak Q4 with a soft guidance for 2024 - Nordea - Atria reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 9.4m, 43% (EUR 7.1m) below LSEG Data & Analytics consensus. Q4 net sales of EUR 438m were down 3% y/y and came 2% below consensus. Q4 EBIT miss was driven by Finland, where sales declined in all channels owing to reduced consumer demand. New poultry unit in Nurmo is now fully operational, clearly ahead of our initial thoughts. Denmark & Estonia beat our estimate slightly, while Sweden EBIT remained on the negative territory and missed our estimate. There were EUR 49.2m of items affecting comparability in Q4 of which EUR 40m related to impairments in Sweden and Denmark & Estonia. Operating cash flow was EUR 52m (EUR 74m a year ago). Dividend proposal of EUR 0.60 came below consensus of EUR 0.71. Atria issued a new guidance which expects decline in adjusted EBIT in 2024 (after EUR 49.6m in 2023) while consensus has modelled EUR 58.3m, or 18% increase. Atria expects challenging operating environment to continue in 2024. Although we view 2024 guidance as cautious, we believe consensus to trim its estimates by around 20% for 2024E and less for 2025E. We note the importance of the new poultry unit and believe the company has taken somewhat cautious view due to uncertainties related to the optimization phase of the new facility which likely burdens H1 performance, we believe.
2/19/2024 9:51:03 AM - Atria: Largely in line with consensus ahead of Q4 – guidance and price levels in focus - Nordea - Ahead of Atria’s Q4, due on 22 February, we maintain our estimates intact. We model -2% y/y sales growth in Q4, driven by Sweden and Finland. We expect virtually flat y/y adjusted EBIT at EUR 16.4m, taking 2023E adjusted EBIT to EUR 56.6m after EUR 49m in 2022. For Q4E, we are in line with LSEG Data & Analytics on adjusted EBIT with 2% lower sales. We expect flat EUR 0.70 dividend proposal for 2023E, slightly below consensus at EUR 0.71. We believe the focus in Q4 will be in the guidance for 2024 and any indications related to sales price development. We have anticipated flattish sales growth for 2024E with 20bp improvement in adjusted EBIT margin, driven by a turnaround in Sweden after investments and profit-improvement programme. In Finland, we have anticipated additional costs related to ramp-up of the new poultry unit. However, we note the company has been running ahead of the initial plan with the ramp-up and hence there could be some upside to our Finland estimates, depending of the ramp-up schedule and costs. Given easing inflation, we believe there is a growing pressure on price levels from grocery chains. On cost side, meat raw material prices have remained at an elevated level, although below peak prices seen during spring/summer of 2023. We view volume outlook for 2024 as stable. Atria should be well positioned going forward with the current investment phase nearing its end with no material refinancing needs in 2024-25. We have a fair value range of EUR 13.1-16.0 per Atria share.
1/15/2024 5:40:59 AM - Börsveckan ger köpråd för fem aktier, lanserar ny utdelningsportfölj med tolv aktier - Börsveckan ger köpråd för fem bolag i årets första utgåvan. Köpråden avser Enento, Outokumpu, Awardit, Telenor och Coor. Tidningen lämnar rådet avvakta för Webstep, Pricer, Strongpoint och Atria.
12/20/2023 11:42:37 AM - Atria: Records EUR 40m goodwill impairment – no cash flow impact - Nordea - Atria records approximately EUR 40m in goodwill impairments (EUR 20m in Atria Sweden and EUR 20m in Atria Denmark). Impairment does not come as a big surprise and we were expecting impairment especially in Denmark due to higher interest rates and somewhat soft performance. Impaiments will not have cash flow impact and Atria’s equity ratio remains at a healthy level. In Q3 2023, equity ratio was 43.6% and we calculate 2.3 pp negative impact from the impairment. Following the impairment, Atria has some EUR 15m of goodwill in Denmark and some EUR 37m in Sweden.
11/24/2023 6:40:15 AM - Atria: Takeaways from capital markets day - Nordea - Atria hosted its CMD event yesterday. The event did not offer any large surprises as strategy and financial targets were maintained intact. We make following remarks.
11/15/2023 3:00:36 PM - Atria varslar cirka 35 tjänster i Sverige - Finska mattillverkaren Atria planerar ett effektiviseringsprogram i Atria Sweden för att uppnå målen i affärsstrategin och förbättra sin konkurrenskraft och prestanda, samt anpassa företaget till förändringarna på marknaden. Detta innebär att Atria Sweden nu varslar cirka 35 tjänster.
11/15/2023 2:14:23 PM - Atria: New efficiency programme targets EUR 2.5m annual cost savings in Sweden - Nordea - Atria Sweden is planning an efficiency programme in Sweden. High raw material costs, inflation, weak SEK and tough pricing negotiations with the trade are affecting Atria Sweden’s performance. The company aims to layoff approximately 35 employees and targets EUR 2.5m annual cost savings that would start to materialise during Q2 2024. The company announced restructuring its Swedish operations in 2021 and has now completed the investment phase which targeted EUR 3.5m annual cost savings. For 2024E, we have modelled Atria Sweden adjusted EBIT of EUR 3.7m (1.1% adjusted EBIT margin). Based on our estimates, Atria Sweden accounts for 6% of group adjusted EBIT in 2024E. We view the announcement as a logical step after the investment phase, while we do not expect any material consensus revisions following the announcement.
10/25/2023 5:25:00 AM - Atria: Strong sales mix secured in Q3 - Nordea - Atria's Q3 EBIT of EUR 19.3m easily beat Refinitiv consensus, despite a weaker top-line development. Retail and foodservice channels performed solidly, while lower-margin sales to feed, industrial and export customers declined y/y. The ramp-up of Swedish and Finnish production and processing plant investments are proceeding as planned and should offer stable ground for profit improvements in 2024E. We derive a slightly higher DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 13.1-16.0 (12.9-15.8). Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
10/24/2023 6:12:23 AM - Atria: Strong Q3 despite soft top line development - Nordea - Atria reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 19.3m, 28% (EUR 4.2m) above Refinitiv consensus. Q3 net sales of EUR 430m were down 2% y/y and came 7% below consensus. However, sales mix was positive as sales decline was driven by lower sales to feed, industrial and export customers. Q3 EBIT beat was due to Finland and Denmark & Estonia, while Sweden came below of our expectation. Atria’s market position has steadily improved in Finland and Estonia. Producer prices have remained above last year level in Finland. There were no items affecting comparability in Q3. Operating cash flow was EUR 10.1m (EUR -7.6m a year ago), supported by lower working capital and higher EBIT. Atria maintains its outlook intact (raised on 11 September) and expects adjusted EBIT to increase from 2023 (after EUR 49m in 2022) while Refinitiv consensus has modelled EUR 52.3m, or 7% increase. Mathematically, Q3 beat translates into 7-8% upward pressure on consensus EBIT estimates. YTD, adjusted EBIT of EUR 20.9m is EUR 7.9m above last year level. We have a fair value range of EUR 12.9-15.8 per Atria share.
10/20/2023 11:56:26 AM - Atria: Possible ASF finding in Åland - Nordea - There are multiple news articles about dead wild boar found in Åland and that authorities are investigating whether the boar would be killed by African Swine Fever (ASF). This would be the first case of ASF in Finland and to our understanding would stop pork exports to e.g. China. We note the situation is still under investigation (results coming in earliest today), while positive finding could even trigger negative guidance revision for Atria, we believe.
9/19/2023 5:31:13 AM - Atria: Broad offering to secure solid volumes - Nordea - Atria raised its guidance on 11 September and now expects adjusted EBIT to improve in 2023. Commissioning of the new poultry factory is proceeding well, with additional costs being lower than previously anticipated. Moreover, the company noted a better sales structure in Finland, which, to our understanding, reflects relatively lower industrial and export sales. We believe volumes have remained stable in both the Retail and Foodservice channels, and that the company has likely maintained price levels. Uncertainty over 2024 prices remains, but the company should benefit from large investments coming on line in 2023-24. We derive a slightly higher DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 12.9-15.8 (12.3-15.0). Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
9/12/2023 6:33:51 AM - Atria: Adjusted EBIT is expected to improve in 2023 - Nordea - On 11 September, Atria issued a positive profit warning. The company now expects adjusted EBIT to improve in 2023, compared to earlier guidance of declining adjusted EBIT in 2023. To our understanding, Atria does not have any percentage point thresholds for its guidance.
7/21/2023 6:39:00 AM - Atria: Costs in focus for H2 - Nordea - Atria's Q2 EBIT of EUR 10m fell short of Refinitiv consensus expectations despite continued strong top-line development. A ramp-up of investments and high input costs weighed on the gross margin, while the company has been able to improve its market share in Finland and Estonia. Cost pressure continues into H2, although we expect volumes to hold up relatively well. We continue to believe that Atria's ability to maintain price levels is one of the key factors for H2. Guidance for declining adjusted EBIT was reiterated, which incorporated additional costs from the ramp-up of investments, which we believe are running somewhat ahead of the original schedule. We derive a somewhat lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 12.3-15.0 (13.0-15.9) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
7/20/2023 6:38:50 AM - Atria: Adjusted EBIT burdened by ramp up of investments - Nordea - Atria reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 10m, 17% (EUR 2.1m) below Refinitiv consensus. Q2 net sales of EUR 457m were up 6% y/y and came 1% above consensus. Q2 EBIT miss was due to Finland and Sweden, while Denmark & Estonia came slightly ahead of our expectation. Atria’s market position has improved clearly in Finland and Estonia. Producer prices have remained above last year level. Q2 EBIT included additional costs related to transfer of production in Sweden (EUR 1.3m in Q1) and ramp up of poultry investment in Finland. Q2 operating cash flow was EUR 44.5m (EUR 22.6m a year ago), supported by lower working capital. Atria maintains its outlook intact and expects adjusted EBIT to decline from 2023 (after EUR 49m in 2022) while Refinitiv consensus has modelled EUR 50m, or 2% increase. We note that Atria issued a similar guidance for 2022 and ended up EUR 0.2m below 2021 level in 2022. However, in 2023, the company will commission a major expansion at its Sköllersta plant in Sweden (transfer completed), and the phased start-up and testing of the new poultry plant in Nurmo has begun. These measures will result in additional costs in 2023. Mathematically, Q2 miss translates into 3-4% downward pressure on consensus EBIT estimates. H1 adjusted EBIT of EUR 20.9m is EUR 4.7m ahead of H1 2022. We have a fair value range of EUR 13.0-15.9 per Atria share.
7/17/2023 6:22:48 AM - Atria: We are ahead of consensus for Q2 – growth investments likely to continue with the new CEO - Nordea - Ahead of Atria’s Q2, due on 20 July, we keep our estimates intact. We model 2% y/y sales growth in Q2, burdened by weak SEK. Sales growth is likely driven by sales price increases, while sales mix could burden sales growth in Q2. To our understanding, private label share of groceries’ sales has continued to increase across operating countries, while the company faces tough operating environment especially in Sweden due to FX and higher share of meat raw material sourcing from EU countries. There is likely some additional costs related to transfer of production from Malmö to Sköllersta in Sweden, although we expect these costs to be lower than seen in Q1 (EUR 1.3m). In Finland, operations have likely continued in a solid manner, while we expect to hear more about the timeline of ramp-up of the new poultry unit in Nurmo (fully operational during 2024). Atria guides for decline in adjusted EBIT in 2023, while we and consensus expect a slight improvement from 2022 level of EUR 49m. We believe the main uncertainties relate to Sweden and the ramp-up phase of the new poultry unit. In addition, we note that there is likely increasing price pressure from grocery chains that have been struggling with their volume development during H1. The new CEO, Kai Gyllström took the helm at the beginning of June and while we do not expect any material changes to the strategy, the company could seek growth outside of Finland, we believe. For Q2E, we are 3% below Refinitiv consensus on top line, while we are 13% ahead on adjusted EBIT. We model adjusted EBIT to improve y/y only in Finland, while we note uncertainties related to, especially, Sweden due to FX and meat raw material sourcing. We have a DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 13.0-15.9 per Atria share.
4/26/2023 5:20:13 AM - Atria: Strength on home soil improving - Nordea - Atria reported strong headline figures for Q1, clearly beating Refinitiv consensus expectations despite additional costs in Sweden and Denmark. Strength came from Finland, where the company continues to gain market shares ahead of the more important H2. Broad-based cost inflation has continued, while the company has been able to protect its margins with stable volumes and price increases. Atria is keeping its guidance for declining adjusted EBIT intact, while we now model 5% growth for 2023. In addition to the poultry unit ramp-up, we view Atria's ability to maintain price levels as one of the key factors in 2023. We derive a DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 13.0-15.9 (12.4-15.1) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
4/25/2023 7:17:42 AM - Atria: Strong Q1 driven by Finland - Nordea - Atria reported Q1 EBIT of EUR 10.9m, 244% (EUR 7.7m) above Refinitiv consensus and 142% above our estimate. Q1 net sales of EUR 428m were up 14% y/y and came 7% above consensus and 6% above our estimate. Q1 EBIT beat was fully driven by Finland, while other segments came below our estimates.
4/21/2023 9:45:27 AM - Atria: Decent Q1 expected despite continued cost inflation - Nordea - We maintain our estimates intact ahead of Atria’s Q1 due on 25 April. Food inflation has continued at an elevated level (e.g. in Finland at around 16%), while we model 10% y/y organic sales growth (+7.5% on reported basis) for Q1, indicating lower volumes. However, meat raw materials in Finland and Sweden have remained fairly stable since beginning of Q4, which should maintain margins at a decent level in Q1. Cost inflation in other raw materials (e.g. packaging) has likely continued and we believe there is pressure on higher logistic costs in Q1. Atria’s market position is strong and we do not expect any meaningful pressure on sales prices during H1 as prices have likely been agreed for the period early in Q4. Exports to China have likely continue at a low level due to low pork price levels in the market. However, given continued uptick in European meat raw material prices, we believe the company has been able to continue export business to other destinations with good price levels. For 2023, Atria guides for decline in adjusted EBIT, while we model only 1% y/y decline. We note that Nurmo poultry unit is likely to enter ramp-up phase during 2023 and causes some pressure on profitability (fully operational in 2024). In addition, expansion in Sköllersta in Sweden will cause some temporary cost headwinds for 2023. For Q1E, we are 1% ahead Refinitiv consensus on sales and 29% (EUR 1m) ahead on adjusted EBIT. For 2023E-25E, we are 1-2% below on sales and 3-5% ahead on adjusted EBIT. We have a fair value range of EUR 12.4-15.1 per Atria share.
2/23/2023 6:41:36 AM - Atria: Entering 2023 in a strong market position - Nordea - Atria ended a volatile 2022 with a strong Q4 that came in well above our expectations on adjusted EBIT. The strong performance in Finland continued, as the company successfully hiked sales prices and improved efficiency. Atria expects cost inflation to continue in 2023 and says that the ramp-ups of new investments in Finland and Sweden will pressure profitability. It expects 2023 adjusted EBIT to decline from the 2022 level, but we believe guidance incorporates high uncertainty related to factory ramp-up costs. Hence, we see 2023 adjusted EBIT on a par with 2022. We derive a DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 12.4-15.1 (12.2-14.9) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
2/22/2023 8:08:35 AM - Atria: Strong Q4 driven by Finland, dividend proposal above expectations - Nordea - Atria reported Q4 adjusted EBIT of EUR 16.7m, 39% above our estimate (no quality consensus available). Q4 net sales of EUR 451m were up 12% y/y and came in line with our estimate. Adjusted EBIT beat was fully driven by Finland, while other segments came below our estimates. Atria’s market position has improved in Finland, Sweden and Estonia, while it has lost some market shares in Denmark during 2022. Producer prices have remained significantly above last year level. Q4 reported EBIT included EUR -51.1m of items affecting comparability, related to impairments in Sweden. Q4 operating cash flow was EUR 74m (EUR 46.3m a year ago). Dividend proposal stands at EUR 0.70 versus consensus of EUR 0.63. Atria’s outlook for 2023 expects adjusted EBIT to decline from 2023 (after EUR 49m in 2022) while we have modelled EUR 48.7m or 1% decline (Refinitiv consensus EUR 47m, or 4% decline). We note that Atria issued a similar guidance for 2022 and ended up EUR 0.2m below 2021 level in 2022. During 2023, the company will commission a major expansion at its Sköllersta plant in Sweden, and the phased start-up and testing of the new poultry plant in Nurmo will begin. These measures will result in additional costs in 2023. We believe consensus revisions to be muted while we note dividend proposal that came above expectations. We have a fair value range of EUR 12.2-14.9 per Atria share.
2/14/2023 6:42:29 AM - Atria: Clinging to current price levels - Nordea - Atria will release its Q4 report on 22 February. Price increases and the continued recovery in the restaurant market should support growth, while the adjusted EBIT margin is likely to have remained under pressure due to cost inflation. We believe the company is set for a margin recovery in 2023, although we expect a slight burden from the ramp-up of the new poultry unit towards year-end. Grain prices have contracted from the peaks, which could put pressure on Atria's selling prices, likely to be visible around Q2 2023. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.2-14.9 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
12/20/2022 1:22:39 PM - Atria: Comment – EUR 51m impairment in Sweden - Nordea - Atria records EUR 51m impairments in Sweden. High inflation affecting consumer behaviour, the exit of fast food operations in Russia, and increased market interest rates have weakened the present value of Atria Sweden's cash flow forecasts. Atria writes down goodwill of Atria Sweden by EUR 35m. In addition, according to its strategy, the company has decided to intensify the use of brands and to end the support of four brands, causing write down of the brands by EUR 16m. We calculate that write downs will have approximately 4.9 pp negative impact on equity ratio (48.9% in Q3). The write-downs will jave no impact on cash flow nor on adjusted EBIT.
12/1/2022 9:41:22 AM - Atria: CEO to retire in May 2023, new CEO has extensive expertise from food industry and cooperatives - Nordea - CEO Juha Gröhn will retire on 31 May 2023. New CEO will be Kai Gyllström who will start as of 1 June 2023. Mr Gröhn has been in helm since 2011 (since 1990 with Atria). Mr Gyllström has extensive background from Arla (lastly as managing director, Sweden) both from domestic and international operations. In addition, he has experience from Carlsberg, Deloitte and Marimekko. Given the extensive background of the upcoming CEO, we believe there will be an orderly transfer of responsibilities. We note that the company is in the middle of large investment phase, while given the timeframe of the investment, we do not expect any challenges related to the CEO change. In addition, given Mr Gyllström background from organization owned by farmers’ cooperatives, we do not expect to see any material changes to the current strategy of Atria.
11/18/2022 12:01:53 PM - Atria: Centralising Finnish poultry production to Nurmo - Nordea - Atria has completed its change negotiations concerning Sahalahti poultry unit. The company will centralise its production to Nurmo factory and the Sahalahti factory will be closed during 2024. The change negotiation concerned the entire personnel of Sahalahti, about 130 people, with all those to be dismissed will be offered the opportunity to mote to work at Atria’s other factories in Finland. Atria seeks to achieve EUR 5m annual cost savings from the end of 2024 onwards. Change negotiations in Nurmo poultry unit continue and are linked to the EUR 155m poultry investment that should be fully operational in 2024 in Nurmo. To our understanding, factory investment is proceeding according to plans and we believe the company could start ramp up in new facility around year end 2023. We note that announcement is in line with earlier communication and we view it as logical step given the large investment into Nurmo facility.
10/27/2022 7:58:26 AM - Atria: Solid performance in tough environment - Nordea - Atria's Q3 adjusted EBIT of EUR 16.2m was in line with our expectations, supported by strong sales growth of 13% y/y that was driven by price increases. Volume development in retail has levelled off, while foodservice remained on its strong track. Costs continue to increase and the main concerns relate to logistics and energy. Large investments are progressing according to plan and we note the positive development in Sweden, where the company had previously been struggling with its poultry operations. We believe Atria can maintain its strong market positions, although uncertainties related to overall market volumes remain. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.2-14.9 (12.0-14.7) per Atria share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
10/26/2022 7:36:37 AM - Atria: A solid Q3 driven by successful price - Nordea - Atria reported Q3 adjusted EBIT of EUR 16.2m in line with our estimate (Refinitiv consensus EUR 14.8m). Q3 net sales of EUR 439m were up 13% y/y and came 1% above our estimate (+6% versus consensus). Adjusted EBIT increased in Sweden and declined in Finland, and Denmark & Estonia. The company has seen good development in foodservice channel while retail sales have levelled off with some business lines and product groups showing downward trend. Producer prices paid by Atria have increased some 30% y/y and the company has adapted to changing operating environment well. The Finnish poultry investment is progressing according to the planned schedule. Q3 reported EBIT included EUR +0.3m of items affecting comparability, related to refund of pension contribution in Sweden. Q3 operating cash flow was EUR 7.6m (EUR 22.6m a year ago) and continued to be burdened by increase in working capital. Atria maintained its outlook intact and expects adjusted EBIT to decline in 2022 (after EUR 49.2m in 2021) while we have modelled EUR 45m (consensus EUR 44m). We believe Q3 report warrants slightly positive consensus revisions while we note uncertainty over volume development in important Q4 due to high inflation.
10/24/2022 7:28:25 AM - Atria: Volume development in focus following the high inflation - Nordea - Atria will report its Q3 on 26 October. Following the sharp food inflation, we are 5% above Refinitiv consensus on top line and 10% above on adjusted EBIT for Q3. We believe the company has been able to mitigate cost inflation with price increases, leaving the key focus on volume development. In addition to grocery trade, strong foodservice recovery should support development in Q3, while sales mix might be burdened by lower sale of higher price point items. However, we note the importance of volume development, which we believe has remained solid in Q3. Exports to China have most likely remained low, although price levels of pork in China have improved clearly since spring, which could support development going forward. To our understanding, investments in Finland and Sweden are proceeding according to the plans. We even believe the Finnish poultry investment (EUR 155m) could be slightly ahead of the original plan and the company could start to ramp-up the facility already during 2023.
9/19/2022 1:15:08 PM - Atria: Aiming to improve competitiveness and profitability of its poultry business – EUR 5m cost saving target - Nordea - Atria is launching a development programme to improve the competitiveness and profitability of its poultry business, which will be implemented in phases. In the first phase, the company starts change negotiations concerning the entire workforce of the Sahalahti plant, approximately 130 people. The possible closure of the plant will be considered in the change negotiations. Atria targets EUR 5m annual savings from the end of 2024. In the second phase, the company will launch negotiations for the current Nurmo poultry unit to prepare for the renewal of work tasks and working practises. We believe these measures link to new poultry factory investment in Nurmo that should be fully operational by the end of 2024. Hence, we view these measures as natural step following the EUR 155m poultry investment and believe that the investment is proceeding well in line with company plans.
7/20/2022 5:27:28 AM - Atria: Rapid price increases became visible - Nordea - Atria reported Q2 adjusted EBIT of EUR 13.8m, up from EUR 12.6m a year ago despite high cost inflation. The company has been successful in its pricing actions, while demand has held up well in the retail channel. In addition, the strong recovery in foodservice has benefitted the company through e.g. a more favourable sales mix, we believe. The next price increases should mitigate ongoing cost inflation, while consumer demand is hard to predict amid current uncertainties. Well-known brands and a strong market position should offer protection even in an inflationary environment, we believe. We derive a fair value of EUR 12.0-14.7 (11.5-14.0) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
7/19/2022 10:33:51 AM - Atria: Strong Q2 with successful pricing actions - Nordea - Atria reported Q2 adjusted EBIT of EUR 13.8m versus our estimate of EUR 2.7m (Refinitiv consensus EUR 10.6m). Q2 net sales of EUR 432m were up 12% y/y and came 5% above our estimate. Adjusted EBIT increased in Finland and Sweden. The company has been successful in pricing actions and sales structure has been more favourable with recovery of foodservice channel. Export sales declined y/y. Producer prices paid by Atria have increased some 30% y/y and the company has done more price increases after the review period.
5/23/2022 7:56:31 AM - Nasdaq gör några förändringar i OMX Helsinki Benchmark index - Nasdaq har genomfört den halvårsvisa översynen av OMX Helsinki Benchmark index. Förändringarna får effekt vid börsens öppning onsdagen den 1 juni. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
5/16/2022 9:56:32 AM - Atria säljer snabbmatsverksamhet i Ryssland - Finska livsmedelsproducenten Atria har sålt sin snabbmatsverksamhet i Ryssland för cirka 8 miljoner euro, motsvarande 84 miljoner kronor. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
5/16/2022 9:35:00 AM - Atria: Sold its fast food business in Russia - Nordea - Atria has sold its fast food business Sibylla Rus LLC to Agricultural Complex Mikhailovskiy, which is part of the Cherkizovo Group. The sales price is approximately EUR 8m. The transaction does not include the Sibylla trademark. Atria will record a capital gain of approximately EUR 2m from the divestment. We had anticipated EUR 3m loss from the divestment. In addition, a translation loss of approximately EUR 10m is recorded from the transaction. To our understanding, translation loss does not have impact on Atria’s equity or cash flows as it has been booked earlier through comprehensive income.
5/4/2022 5:44:46 AM - Atria: Substantial cost headwinds for 2022 - Nordea - Q1 earnings were better than feared, but substantially higher-than-expected cost headwinds create uncertainty for the remainder of the year. In Q4, the company anticipated cost headwinds of around EUR 60m, while it now expects closer to EUR 200m annually. We believe costs will normalise somewhat during 2022 but remain elevated. Demand has remained solid in the retail channel, while a foodservice recovery should support the mix development. The poultry investment is proceeding according to plan and on budget. We believe Q2 will be a tough quarter with lagging price increases, while H2 is more dependent on how consumer demand evolves when price increases start to materialise. We derive a fair value range of EUR 11.5-14.0 (11.4-13.9) per Atria share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
5/3/2022 6:34:31 AM - Atria: Strong top line development secured positive EBIT for Q1 - Nordea - Atria reported Q1 adjusted EBIT of EUR 2.3m versus Refinitiv consensus at EUR -0.6m and Nordea at EUR -0.4m. Q1 net sales of EUR 375m were up 4% y/y and came 4% above consensus (+3% versus Nordea). Adjusted EBIT declined in all segments due to higher costs, while group costs beat our expectations. The Finnish poultry investment is progressing according to the planned schedule and within the EUR 155m budget, while EUR 30m investment to Sweden will increase slightly due to increase in material costs. Atria expects that the exit from the Russian fast food business to take place in Q2. Atria maintained its outlook intact and expects adjusted EBIT to decline in 2022 (consensus EUR 32.5m after EUR 49.2m in 2021). Initially, we expect consensus to hike 2022-23 EBIT estimates by at least 5% as it appears that the company has successfully increased sale prices, although not to fully extent at the moment.
4/27/2022 5:35:13 AM - Atria: Divests factory property in Sweden and books EUR 10m profit - Nordea - Atria announced that it will sell its factory property in Malmö, Sweden. This is a continuation of efficiency improvement program launched in 2021 when Atria decided to centralise its production from Malmö to Sköllersta in Örebro. Atria receives EUR 22m from the sale of its property and continues to run industrial operations on the premises and close production in 2023. The company will book non-recurring sales profit of approximately EUR 10m, boosting Q2 EBIT (transaction takes effect on 26 April). We had not anticipated any sales gain from the closure of the plant. Atria will report its Q1 on 3 May. We have a fair value range of EUR 11.4-13.9 per Atria share.
4/26/2022 5:36:06 AM - Atria: Tough H1 before prices catch up with costs - Nordea - We take a more cautious view ahead of Atria's Q1 results due on 3 May. While foodservice sales have clearly recovered following the easing of restrictions, we expect the poor harvest and the geopolitical situation in Ukraine to increase cost inflation. We expect multiple sales price hikes in 2022, while it might take until 2023 before prices catch up with the ongoing cost inflation. We argue that even though Atria could manage to pass on cost inflation to prices, consumer retail demand could decline due to higher prices in the latter part of 2022. We derive a fair value range of EUR 11.4-13.9 (12.6-15.4) per Atria share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
3/8/2022 7:40:57 AM - Atria: Exiting last piece of Russian business - Nordea - Atria announced that it will exit fast food business in Russia where it has been operating with Sibylla brand after divestment of its industrial subsidiary in 2021. Net sales of Russian fast food company operating in Russia is about 1.5% of Atria’s sales. We believe Russian fast food company has been operating with above group average operating profit. The company notes that the decision to exit Russian fast food business is not financially significant for Atria. To our understanding, Atria’s Russian fast food company had around EUR 5m in accounts receivable at the end of 2021. We believe the company will make a small write-down related to the exit in its Q1 report. Although the exit will cause some pressure on earnings development, we view the increasing cost inflation as a more material concern. In its Q4 report, Atria expected around EUR 60m cost headwind for 2022 and we believe the Ukrainian crisis could increase the cost pressure further through e.g. higher producer prices (meat raw material), packaging, electricity and logistics. We have anticipated 13% adjusted EBIT decline in 2022E
3/7/2022 3:59:52 PM - Atria lämnar sin ryska snabbmatsverksamhet - Finska mattillverkaren Atria lämnar sitt ryska snabbmatföretag. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
2/16/2022 6:50:30 AM - Atria: Exceptional cost pressure in 2022 - Nordea - Atria reported Q4 adjusted EBIT of EUR 10.3m, 19% below Refinitiv consensus. Net sales increased despite the divestment in Russia. Broad-based cost inflation burdened margins and the company expects this to continue in 2022. The dividend proposal of EUR 0.63 was well above expectations. Atria's guidance for 2022 points to a decline in adjusted EBIT. Due to the lag in price increases, we believe H1 will be difficult. Despite the easing of restaurant restrictions and the positive effect of the divestment in Russia, we model a 13% adjusted EBIT decline in 2022. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.6-15.4 (12.6-15.5) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
2/15/2022 9:16:25 AM - Atria: Q4 misses on higher costs, adjusted EBIT is expected to decline in 2022 - Nordea - Atria reported Q4 adjusted EBIT of EUR 10.3m, -19% / -13% versus Refinitiv consensus and Nordea, respectively. Q4 net sales of EUR 404m were up 1% y/y and came 3% above consensus (+2% versus Nordea). Adjusted EBIT declined in all segments due to higher costs. Exports to China declined due to deteriorated market situation towards year end. The Finnish poultry investment is progressing according to the planned schedule and should be operational in 2024. Dividend proposal stands well above expectations at EUR 0.63 (consensus EUR 0.51 after EUR 0.50 in 2020). Atria expects adjusted EBIT to decline in 2022 (consensus EUR 45.5m after EUR 49.2m in 2021). As a first take, we expect consensus to cut 2022 EBIT estimate by around 5% due to uncertainties over cost inflation and export level to China.
11/26/2021 7:41:13 AM - Atria: CMD event did offer additional information about costs and growth outlook - Nordea - Atria hosted its annual CMD event yesterday. Presentations concentrated on Atria Finland and Sweden segments. The company is proceeding according to its 2020-25 strategy and aims to improve its performance with investments into poultry, expansion in convenience food and strengthening food service. Poultry remains the key growth driver with expected 2.3% average volume growth in 2020-30 in Finland. The company has been able to find new export channels to mitigate lower export to China and sees good opportunities within these markets. The EUR 155m poultry investment to Finland should be operational in 2024, while the EUR 30m Swedish restructuring investment should be finalised by the end of 2023. Sibylla operations have recovered from COVID-19 slump, while the company is aiming to increase its footprint in fast food market. In short term, mounting cost inflation will have impact on Atria’s profitability, while th e company aims to mitigate cost increases through operational efficiency and price increases. In 2022, Atria expects costs to be EUR 40-50m above 2021 level. We have a fair value range of EUR 12.6-15.5 per Atria share.
10/22/2021 5:45:17 AM - Atria: Strong Q3 despite mounting cost inflation - Nordea - Atria reported a strong Q3 with EBIT of EUR 19.7m beating Refinitiv consensus by 16%. On an organic basis, sales were up 4% y/y, with solid retail sales and improving fast food and foodservice sales after easing of restrictions. Investments in Finland and Sweden are proceeding according to plan. Atria raised its 2021 guidance on 18 October and expects EUR 47-54m in adjusted EBIT in 2021, while we are more concerned about the outlook for 2022. General cost inflation started to mount in September and we expect the main impact to materialise in H1 2022. Given the lag between cost and price increases, we expect 2022 to be heavily back-end loaded with a difficult H1. The company will arrange a CMD event on 25 November. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.6-15.5 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
10/21/2021 6:31:16 AM - Atria: Strong Q3 with recovering foodservice market, cost inflation started to materialise at the end of Q3 - Nordea - After a guidance upgrade on 18 October, Atria reported a strong Q3 adjusted EBIT of EUR 19.7m, +16% / +18% versus Refinitiv consensus and Nordea, respectively. Q3 net sales of EUR 388m were up 1% y/y (+4% organic growth) and came 1% above consensus (+3% versus Nordea). 16% EBIT beat in Q3 was mainly attributable to Finland, where retail sales have continued at a last year level, while foodservice sales have started to recover. Exports to China have decreased and profitability of exports deteriorated due to current low price level in Chinese pork market. Atria reiterated its upgraded (18 October) EUR 47-54m adjusted EBIT guidance for 2021 (EUR 40.5m in 2020). Guidance mid-point indicates EUR 11.6m adjusted EBIT for Q4, while consensus is currently expecting EUR 13.6m EBIT for Q4 (Nordea EUR 11.8m). Despite strong Q3, we expect limited consensus revisions for 2022E-23E and note uncertainty due to volatile exports t o China and cost inflation that became material for Atria in the latter part of Q3. We currently model EUR 50m adjusted EBIT for 2022E, while Atria’s 2021 adjusted EBIT guidance mid-point is EUR 50.5m.
10/19/2021 5:28:53 AM - Atria: Guidance upped for the second time in 2021 - Nordea - Atria raises its adjusted EBIT guidance to EUR 47-54m (from EUR 41-48m after EUR 40.5m in 2020). We took a slightly more cautious view in our preview and are currently modelling EUR 47.5m adjusted EBIT for 2021E, i.e. 6% below the upped mid-point of the guidance. Reasoning is faster-than-anticipated recovery of food service and fast-food markets after the removal of COVID-19 restrictions, and better-than-expected sales in these channels. There is no quality consensus available but we view positively easing of concerns related to lower exports to China and overall cost inflation for the reminder of the year. Atria’s Q3 report is due on 21 October. We have a fair value range of EUR 13.0-15.9 per share for Atria.
10/18/2021 2:52:40 PM - Atria höjer ebit-guidning för 2021 - matservice och snabbmat återhämtat sig snabbare än trott - Finska mattillverkaren Atria har höjt ebit-guidningen för 2021 och estimerar att det justerade rörelseresultatet kommer att uppgå till mellan 47 och 54 miljoner euro (40,5). Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
10/14/2021 5:53:10 AM - Atria: Cost inflation is lurking around the corner - Nordea - We take a slightly more cautious view ahead of Atria's Q3 results due on 21 October. We believe retail sales have remained solid, while foodservice sales have started to recover following the easing of restrictions. Pork exports from Finland to China appear to have plummeted due to declining prices. However, sudden changes can occur in the Chinese pork market. Following a poor harvest season, we expect cost inflation, especially in Finland and Sweden, while Denmark and Estonia could benefit from low European pork prices. We derive a fair value range of EUR 13.0-15.9 (14.1-17.3) per share for Atria. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
7/21/2021 5:39:22 AM - Atria: Guidance appears undemanding for H2 - Nordea - Atria's strong Q2 results included adjusted EBIT of EUR 12.6m versus our expectation of EUR 6.3m. The recovery of foodservice continued, while retail sales growth has flattened. The company increased its exports to China during H1, while the recent drop in export prices could lead to less favourable market conditions during H2, especially in Q3. Although we take a slightly more cautious view on H2, we believe the company will raise its guidance in conjunction with the Q3 report. Chinese demand and pork prices will remain the key drivers for European meat raw material prices in the short term. We derive a fair value range of EUR 14.1-17.3 (13.6-16.7) per Atria share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
7/20/2021 8:35:43 AM - Atria: Strong Q2 across all operating countries - Nordea - Atria reported strong Q2 adjusted EBIT of EUR 12.6m, +100% versus Nordea. Q2 net sales of EUR 387m were up 6% y/y and came in 6% above our expectations. The 100% EBIT beat in Q2 was mainly attributable to Finland, where retail sales have continued at a high level, while foodservice sales have started to recover. Exports to China have increased while price levels are currently at a lower level. Atria reiterated its now upgraded EUR 41-48m adjusted EBIT guidance for 2021 (EUR 40.5m in 2020). Despite a lower pork export price level, we continue to believe in another guidance upgrade at the latest in conjunction with the Q3 report.
5/17/2021 12:09:16 PM - Atria: Invests EUR 30m in restructuring of the Swedish production - Nordea - Atria has decided to invest EUR 30m in restructuring of the Swedish production. Production in Malmö will be moved to the plants in Sköllersta and Moheda in Sweden and to Hansted in Denmark. This is not a big surprise as Malmö is fairly old plant that is closing end of its technical life. The move can be completed in 2023 at the earliest and until then production will continue in Malmö. After the move, Atria aims to sell the factory building in Malmö. The company estimates EUR 3.5m annual savings from the restructuring. We view restructuring highly anticipated move and we do not expect any meaningful impact on consensus estimates. However, the move is well in line with Atria’s strategy as it should improve profitability in Sweden and lower climate footprint.
5/17/2021 11:15:15 AM - Atria omstrukturerar sin svenska verksamhet - Finska livsmedelskoncernen Atria ska för 30 miljoner euro, motsvarande 305 miljoner kronor, omstrukturera sin verksamhet i Sverige. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
4/30/2021 5:30:08 AM - Atria: Promising start to the year- Nordea - Atria reported Q1 EBIT of EUR 6.6m, well above our and Refinitiv consensus expectations. The company benefitted from strong retail and export volumes in Finland, while all business areas were able to improve EBIT y/y. Positive volume and mix effect more than offset the hoarding seen in Q1 2020, and sales rose by 1% y/y. Atria renewed its reporting structure ahead of the divestment of Pit-Product, which should be finalised during Q2. Atria reiterated its flat guidance for 2021, which we find overly cautious given easing restrictions, favourable pork exports, the divestment of the loss-making Russian operations and continuing efficiency improvements. For 2021, we forecast adjusted EBIT of EUR 48.2m (EUR 40.5m in 2020). We derive a fair value range of EUR 13.6-16.7 (12.9-15.8) per Atria share.
4/29/2021 6:08:51 AM - Atria: Strong start for the year - Nordea - Atria reported a strong Q1 adjusted EBIT of EUR 6.6m, +94% / +107% versus Refinitiv consensus and Nordea, respectively. Q1 net sales of EUR 361m were up 1% y/y and came slightly above our expectations. 94% EBIT beat in Q1 was mainly attributable to Finland, where retail sales and especially export to China increased. Eastern had a positive sales effect and EBIT improved in all business areas. Retail sales increased by almost 10%, while foodservice sales were down around 20% y/y. The company changes its reporting structure ahead of the divestment of Pit-Products that is estimated to be finalised during H1. Russian Sibylla operations will be reported under Atria Sweden, while Pit-Products is reported in Unallocated. Sibylla has been performing well in Russia as we calculate EUR 31m net sales and EUR 2.8m EBIT in 2020, indicating around 9% EBIT margin (Group adjusted EBIT margin was 2.7% in 2020). The company will d ecide over EUR 30m investment project in Sweden by the end of June. Atria reiterated its EUR 37-43m adjusted EBIT guidance for 2021 (EUR 40.5m in 2020), which we find conservative given strong Q1, possible easing of restrictions, continuing efficiency improvements and tailwind from the divestment in H2.<br>View on the web
4/28/2021 12:19:59 PM - Atria: Changing segment reporting ahead of divestment of Pit-Products - Nordea - Atria announced changes to its group structure and segment reporting today. The company has agreed to sell its Russian retail and foodservice subsidiary Pit-Product, while it retains its Sibylla operations in Russia. Following the divestment that is estimated to take place during H1 2021, Atria will report Russian Sibylla operations as part of Atria Sweden. The change will be implemented in reporting as of January 1, 2021. According to restated figures, we note that Russian Sibylla operations net sales were EUR 31.2m, while EBIT was EUR 2.8m in 2020. We have anticipated EUR 33.6m sales and EUR 2.4m EBIT from Russian Sibylla operations in 2022E. Hence, it seems that Sibylla profitability (around 9% EBIT margin in 2020) is somewhat above our expectations, although this will have on only a small impact on the group level. However, we note that Pit-Product’s EBIT was -5.7m in 2020 and hence the divestment should su pport earnings after the completion of the divestment. Atria guides for EUR 37-43m adjusted EBIT in 2021 (EUR 40.5m in 2020), while we expect EUR 46m given easing of restrictions, continuing efficiency improvements and tailwind from the divestment in H2. Atria will report its Q1 tomorrow, 29 April, at 08:00 EET.
4/22/2021 5:48:33 AM - Atria: Retail and exports supporting volumes - Nordea - Atria will report its Q1 results on 29 April. We expect good growth in retail and export volumes, while restrictions in the restaurant market will likely result in a sub-par sales mix.
2/17/2021 6:49:41 AM - Atria: Improving profitability through restructuring - Nordea - Atria reported Q4 2020 adjusted EBIT of EUR 15.9m, 14% above our estimate. Retail and export sales increased, while foodservice remained sluggish in Q4. The company announced ahead of the report that it is divesting its loss-making retail and foodservice business Pit-Product in Russia, while retaining its well-performing Sibylla operations. Guidance for 2021 appears conservative to us as the adjusted EBIT guidance midpoint of EUR 40m indicates a 3% y/y decline, while we expect a positive impact from the Russian divestment and a continued good level of pork exports to China. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.3-15.0 per Atria share.
12/17/2020 12:20:35 PM - Atria medverkar i EU-finansierad exportkampanj till Kina - Den finska branschorganisationen Finfood, i vilken bland annat livsmedelsbolaget Atria ingår, medverkar i en exportkampanj av jordbruksprodukter till Kina. Kampanjen understörs av EU med ett bidrag på tre miljoner euro, skriver Atria i ett pressmeddelande.
11/27/2020 2:40:35 PM - Atria: Clear vision for improved earnings - Nordea - Atria hosted a CMD on 25 November where it elaborated on the background to its recently renewed strategy that runs until 2025. The new strategy is built on success in the poultry business, a broader channel offering, improved profitability and above-market growth. The four-year investment phase of the EUR 155m poultry investment is commencing and should offer Atria 40% higher poultry capacity in Finland with improved efficiency. Management seemed confident of reaching the 5% EBIT margin target by 2025, while short-term uncertainties look to be elevated due to COVID-19 and high volatility in the meat raw material market.
10/21/2020 11:43:30 AM - Finländsk mattjätte aviserar sin största investering någonsin - Finländska mattillverkaren Atria gör sin hittills största investering när man plöjer ned 155 miljoner euro, motsvarande 1,6 miljarder kronor, i en utökad produktion av fjäderfä. Det framgår av ett pressmeddelande.
7/17/2020 5:22:44 AM - Atria minskar omsättning och vinst i andra kvartalet - Finska mattillverkaren Atria redovisar lägre omsättning och vinst under andra kvartalet, jämfört med året innan.
1/20/2020 5:25:11 PM - Atria sänker försäljningsprognosen för 2019 - Atria sänker försäljningsprognosen för 2019