Siili Solutions: Reshapes the organisation with material savings target - SEB
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Siili Solutions: Reshapes the organisation with material savings target - SEB

Siili announced a new round of change negotiations, now targeting permanent savings of up to EUR 3.0-3.5m. The mechanical input of the savings to our 2027-28 estimates indicates a significant step up in estimates. However, the read-through is not that straightforward, as the need for layoffs rarely suggests a good short-term demand outlook. However, we note that the competence mix management is necessary on the new AI-driven strategic road.

Estimate impact: Upside potential to 2027E EBITA if the sales base holds The savings of EUR 3.0–3.5m are significant relative to our estimates: they equal 3.0–3.4% of our 2027E sales of EUR 102.5m and 67–78% of our 2027E adjusted EBITA of EUR 4.5m. Taken at face value, adding them in full would lift 2027E adjusted EBITA to EUR 7.5–8.0m, a margin of about 7.3–7.8%.

However, we would not count the full amount as incremental due to need for layoffs is never a good sign of near-term demand growth. Also reductions among consultants carry some risk to revenue if demand picks up faster than expected. Yet in a market reshaped by AI, the competence mix of IT consultancies has to change: demand is shifting towards specialised AI and data expertise, as Siili itself noted in Q3, while traditional development and legacy work is under pressure. We view the measures as a necessary step that supports the margin recovery seen in Q3 and positions Siili better for the AI-driven demand, with clear upside to our 2027E EBITA if the sales base holds.
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