BTS Group - Much better than expected, stock up 10% - ABG
* 13% organic growth (cons 5%), EBITA +47% vs cons * Sales beat in all regions, AI implementation deals develop strongly * "Progressing towards 17% margin" (cons 13.7% 2028e), est & stock up >10%
Strong momentum, upside potential from margin target comment
BTS delivered sales beat in all regions (+1-10% vs cons) with >10% organic growth in North America (17%) and Europe (15%). Positive results from AI, both revenues from AI implementation projects (+13% q-o-q, now 11% of group sales) and improved internal efficiency. Reiterates FY guidance of “2026 EBITA significantly better than 2025”, which is the highest guidance level, and in line with expectations. Guides for a slow-down in Europe organic growth in Q4, also as expected. Comments that it expects solid organic growth ahead and is progressing towards the long-term EBITA margin target of 17% (cons 13.7% 2028e), which we find encouraging given that the margin has declined from peak 15.0% in 2021 to 11.2% in 2025 and 11.8% in 2026e (cons).
Estimates and stock up >10% today
We expect consensus to raise EBITA by 10-15% and share to outperform significantly today, up >10% on the strong organic growth and long-term margin comment. Conf call CET 9.00.
