Catella's Q3 adjusted EBIT of SEK15m beat our SEK-10m, as Corporate Finance more than offset weaker Investment Management (EBIT SEK23m, our SEK32m). A SEK20m fair value loss and SEK11m of transformation costs took reported EBIT to SEK-16m. AUM of SEK162.2bn was 0.7% below our estimate: currency added SEK3.5bn while net outflows took SEK1.8bn. We expect outflows to rise in Q4 and Q1 before levelling off, and new fund strategies to bring in AUM from late 2027 at the earliest. We lower our AUM forecasts but raise 2026e adj. EBIT by 47% on the Q3 beat, and savings of about SEK30m y/y lift 2027e EBIT by 13%. We lower our Base Case to SEK38 (41).
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