Tallinna Sadam: Towards a moderate growth story - Nordea
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Tallinna Sadam: Towards a moderate growth story - Nordea

We believe the first property development project could be announced in late 2026. The first plot and respective auction are not big, but they support the growth story, diversify earnings sources and could even justify higher valuation multiples for the group. Another growth driver for 2027 is the new quay in Paldiski. However, a short-term headwind could come from fuel prices and weak cargo volumes. Our fair value range of EUR 1.4-1.7 is unchanged, based on a combination of our DCF model and a peer-group comparison. Investments are coming down, and the free cash flow yield could be 12% in 2027, compared to our forecast dividend yield of 7%. There is room for a positive dividend surprise next spring, and the share price has over 20% upside if volumes improve further and growth investments start to contribute to annual EBITDA.

We believe the first property development project could be announced in late 2026. The first plot and respective auction are not big, but they support the growth story, diversify earnings sources and could even justify higher valuation multiples for the group. Another growth driver for 2027 is the new quay in Paldiski. However, a short-term headwind could come from fuel prices and weak cargo volumes. Our fair value range of EUR 1.4-1.7 is unchanged, based on a combination of our DCF model and a peer-group comparison. Investments are coming down, and the free cash flow yield could be 12% in 2027, compared to our forecast dividend yield of 7%. There is room for a positive dividend surprise next spring, and the share price has over 20% upside if volumes improve further and growth investments start to contribute to annual EBITDA.
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