Donkey Republic: Shifting into a higher gear - ABG
* We raise our estimates following impressive Q3 profitability * We move to the very top of the FY EBITDA guidance * FVR up to DKK 8.5-11.5 (8.0-11.0)
ANNONS
Impressive profitability trend continues
DONKEY delivered solid +11% revenue growth in Q3'26, driven by +14% fleet growth, while the -3% decline in revenue/bike was to be expected due to the German roll-outs and weather. EBITDA reached DKK 23.1m (14% above our estimate of DKK 20.3m), which is impressive given that the company absorbed the majority of its ramp-up costs for its German roll-outs during Q3. DONKEY says that the Düsseldorf system was fully rolled out by the end of Q3, and 95% of the Ruhr fleet is in operation as of today (2 Nov), with the full fleet expected operational by YE'26.
'26e/'27e/'28e EBITDA raised by 5%/4%/2%
We extrapolate the stronger profitability, raising '26e/'27e/'28e EBITDA by 5%/4%/2% (while the 42% '26e EPS revision is due to numbers close to zero). This leaves us expecting FY'26 figures at the very top of profitability guidance, forecasting EBITDA of DKK 45m (guidance DKK 38m-45m) off revenues of DKK 191m (guidance DKK 184m-194m). DONKEY delivered a y-o-y uptick in EBITDA of DKK 5.1m in Q1, DKK 10.2m in Q2, and DKK 1.9m in Q3, and as such, we now struggle to see even the mid-point as realistic considering this would require a y-o-y drop of DKK 1.8m in Q4.
FVR raised to DKK 8.5-11.5/share (8.0-11.0)
We continue to see DONKEY offering attractive fundamentals (helped by a solid competitive edge with market tailwinds coupled with a solid pipeline), and forecast a revenue CAGR of +20% in '25-'28e (vs. 35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 89m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 43m. Please refer to our recent in-depth report for more details on recent regulatory trends and tenders, as well as a benchmarking with micromobility peer Lime (Neutron Holdings). We raise our fair value range to DKK 8.5-11.5/share (8.0-11.0).
