VERBIO is set for a strong start to FY26/27, with Q1'26/27 EBITDA expected to quadruple yoy to €
61.5m (eNuW), supported by stronger European biodiesel and ethanol spreads, higher utilisation as Nevada continues to ramp up, and significantly higher German GHG quota prices. Nevertheless, EBITDA is seen c. 11% below Q4’25/26, adjusted for the € 19m reversal of GHG quota inventory impairments. This mainly reflects normalising European ethanol spreads (eNuW: c. € 230/t vs c. € 380/t in Q4). While GHG quota market prices have continued to rise qoq, we expect a higher share of deliveries under fixed-price bilateral contracts rather than spot sales, keeping realised prices broadly stable qoq.
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