CapMan: Q2 fee income and profit softer than expected - Nordea

CapMan’s Q2 fee income of EUR 15.2m grew 9% y/y but was 14% below our estimate of EUR 17.7m. Fee profit of EUR 1.3m grew by 5% y/y, but came clearly below our estimate of EUR 3.2m, while the fee profit margin (8.8%) declined by 40 bp y/y. Driven by lower-than-expected fee income, slightly lower-than-expected positive fair value changes (EUR 2.6m vs. NDAe EUR 3.3m) and no carried interest bookings (EUR 0.0m vs. NDAe EUR 1.0m) group level adjusted EBIT of EUR 3.5m came clearly below our estimate of EUR 7.5m. AuM increased to EUR 7.7bn (Q1:EUR 7.2bn), in line with our expectation, driven by first closes in NRE IV and Infra III, which collectively raised some EUR 400m in Q2. The company outlook for 2026 was reiterated (AuM and fee profit to grow in 2026), while management points to uplift in profitability when final closes in flagship funds are held (targeted in 2027). Taken together, and reflecting a soft result, we expect a mid-single to high-single digit negative share price reaction today.