Aspo: Favourable market environment for Telko - Nordea

Q2 net sales and clean EBITA were above our expectations. Favourable pricing supported the Telko segment, but the market environment has remained somewhat soft in the ESL Shipping segment. Aspo maintained its outlook, guiding for a y/y EBITA improvement in 2026. The company's guidance is not challenging, and we believe Aspo could even upgrade it in H2 2026. Our new estimates support a broader fair value range of EUR 7.1-8.7 (6.7-8.2), based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Aspo was not able to sell the ESL Shipping segment at high multiples; therefore, no immediate value creation has materialised yet. In addition, the Telko segment is performing strongly in 2026, but similar adjusted EBITA margins might not be repeated in 2027. The Telko segment has a >12% annual average growth target for 2026E-30E, and its value creation is partly dependent upon acquisition prices and execution of its compounder strategy.