* Sports margin weak in Feb'26 * Minor estimate revisions * Trading below peers at 4.0x '26e EV/EBITDA
ANNONS
Sports margin held back the quarter
Q1 was a bit softer than we had expected with respect to adj. EBITDA, which was 6% below our expectation but in line with FactSet consensus. Given that revenue was in line with our expectations, we also deem the maintained guidance range credible (even though it is rather wide). Going forward, we expect revenue growth to accelerate to 16% in Q2e, and to then gradually normalise down to 5% in a few quarters. The company continues to deleverage, and the leverage ratio is now closer to 2.7x net debt/EBITDA.
Estimate revisions
We only make minor estimate changes, cutting '26e EBITDA by 3% after the report. We remain in line with the lower end of Gentoo's '26e guidance for revenue and EBITDA. Encouragingly, the Q1 operating cash flow was strong and de-risks the guidance for operating cash flow, which is important for the deleveraging journey ahead. Notably, this performance should be considered against the backdrop of a weak sports margin in Feb'26 that should not be extrapolated. The reason is that the sports margin is often mostly contingent on sports outcomes, and these can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. We continue to believe that Gentoo can return to growth in the coming years as some of the old headwinds abate.
Trading at 4.0x '26e EV/EBITDA
Gentoo is trading at 4.0x '26e EV/EBITDA, well below Better Collective (7.5x) and Gambling.com (4.3x). This means that Gentoo is trading 35% below the average of Better Collective and Gambling.com. Moreover, we highlight that Gentoo is trading at a '26e lease-adj. FCF yield excl. M&A of nearly 25%, as it should be noted that the company is largely focused on deleveraging.
