Incap: Q1 to be coloured by impacts from Lacon - Nordea

Reported growth is set to be very strong for Q1, due to the acquisition of Lacon Group. However, organic growth should also pick up after three negative quarters. Germany has remained a challenging market, but there are some positive signals in the trade negotiations between the US and India. We expect revenues from the biggest customer to have grown in Q1 y/y, but Incap's profitability (EBIT margin) could remain below its ten-year average of 12.7% in 2026-27. Lacon, which was consolidated in February 2026, has lower profitability than Incap, but acquisitions are needed to broaden the customer base and improve the size of the company. Reduced volatility in net sales could also improve predictability, supporting the company's valuation multiples. Our fair value range remains at EUR 11.7-14.3 per share, based on our DCF analysis and backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's 2026E P/E and EV/EBIT combined are currently 33% below the peer group median.