Elanders: Earnings growth, despite a muted market - Nordea

We cut 2026E adjusted EBITA by 9% and 2027E-28E by 4-6% ahead of the Q1 report, due to FX and an ongoing muted market. Overcapacity is likely to remain a margin drag, especially in the North American Fashion business, and we foresee continued weakness in FMCG. However, we still appreciate the margin-enhancing measures, especially in SCS, which we estimate should drive a margin uplift of 89bp y/y for Q1. Looking at full-year 2026, we expect Elanders to deliver 8% adjusted EBITA growth, with a 93bp margin uplift, implying a margin of 7.3%. We view Elanders as well positioned to capitalise on improving market conditions going forward, thanks to a lower cost base and a more capital-light business model. We anticipate a net working capital release in Q1, which should improve leverage. We model lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 3.9x for 2026. We derive a lower multiple-based fair value range of SEK 41-88 (52-97), implying 2027E EV/EBITA of ~10-12x.