Infrea: Solid improvements and higher dividend - ABG
* Sales 0%, adj. EBITA 0% vs. ABGSCe, 2.5% org. growth * '26e-'27e adj. EBITA estimates likely flat * Share to focus on DPS and solid improvements
ANNONS
Q4 details
Infrea delivered a solid report with organic sales +2.5% y-o-y, and a high margin driven by paving services (again) delivering a good result. In Q4'25, Infrea sold the Water & Sewage segment. We included the segment in the comparable numbers for '24, while it is shown as an asset held for sale in the Q4'25 numbers. Sales came in at SEK 612m (0% vs. ABGSCe), -4% y-o-y of which +2.5% organic (0% Q3'25), driven by Land & Construction, partly offset by Paving services. Adj. EBITA grew SEK 5m y-o-y to SEK 39m (0% vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 6.3% (ABGSCe 6.3%, 5.4% Q4'24) driven by good result in Asfaltsgruppen and despite a SEK 8m reservations regarding ongoing customer discussions. We adjust EBITA for a SEK 5.1m costs associated with the divestment of W&S. DPS came in at SEK 0.65 vs ABGSCe at SEK 0.5 (SEK 0.5 '24).
Estimate changes and outlook
Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, we know the market is tough in some regions. Nevertheless, we consider Infrea's solid margin and positive internal development to be signs that it is navigating the market well. We expect estimates for '26e-'27e adj. EBITA to be flat.
Final thoughts
A solid report with sales and adj. EBITA in line with our expectations. The share has outperformed the broader market into numbers and is trading at 10-6x EBITA '25e-'27e. We believe that the market will focus on the continued positive margin development resulting from Infrea's hard internal work.
