Redeye cuts its base case to SEK10 (from SEK11) and bull case to SEK15 (from SEK17), trimming 2026 net sales estimates 31% after concluding that the sequential steps between a 2026 tapeout and material chip shipments — qualification, production ramp, commercial delivery — are too compressed to generate meaningful revenue within the same calendar year. With SEK80m in cash against a quarterly net burn of ~SEK13m — and assuming no material revenue contribution before tapeout — the company holds approximately five to six quarters of operational runway entering what management has framed as its critical execution phase. The bear case stands at SEK5.
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