* SATCOM demand is strong
* There is good, untapped potential with Ovzon-3
* The stock trades at 13x '26e EV/EBIT (10% FCF yield)
SATCOM demand is increasing
Today, we hosted Ovzon's CEO, Per Norén, as well as CFO, André Löfgren, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Ovzon provides fully integrated satellite communication solutions for mission-critical customers, particularly in the defence industry. To deliver its services, Ovzon uses capacity from its own proprietary satellite (Ovzon-3) as well as third-party capacity. One of its unique selling points is its OTP processor, which Ovzon-3 is equipped with and which creates a closed-loop communication system. In the wake of recent geopolitical turmoil, demand for satellite capacity has increased, as it is a particularly resilient complement to terrestrial networks. Another positive market trend is that more and more countries are realising that they need to incorporate proven satellite communication technology, such as that provided by Ovzon, into their communication strategies.
Multiple milestone achievements in 2025
Management emphasised that 2025 has been an eventful year for the company, with several highlights: 1) signing of the SEK1bn breakthrough order with the Swedish FMV; 2) refinancing of its debt (interest rates have been lowered from ~15% to ~4.5%); 3) increased durability in the order backlog; 4) a better diversified customer base; and 5) becoming a profitable company, both in terms of EBIT and FCF (we expect 16% EBIT margin in '25e; and 30% '26e, as the FMV order only started to ramp in June).
The larger the order, the higher the complexity
Regarding order momentum, management emphasised that the company remains highly engaged in customer dialogues, although momentum in the US has recently been impacted by the government shutdown. Furthermore, the company is continuously striving to win large customers, although the timing of closing is uncertain given the high level of complexity. We expect to see some improvements in 2026e, as a significant part of Ovzon-3 remains unused while demand is good, and we also expect this to render strong earnings growth (also driven by the recent FMV order). The stock trades at 34x-13x '25e-'26e EV/EBIT (and a 8-10% FCF yield).
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