- Q2 boosted by Kaktus divestment - Minor negative tweaks to our 2025e-'26e EBIT - 2025e-'27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x, with easy comps
ANNONS
Q2'25e boosted by Kaktus divestment For the Q2’25 report (due 21 August), we expect EBIT of SEK 283m (SEK 34m) and that transaction activity has improved y-o-y in Q2, a sign of positive momentum slowly building up. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be up 2% q-o-q to SEK 151bn, partly helped by an FX tailwind in the quarter. We expect the segment to deliver an operating profit of SEK 40m (SEK 36m), which is a slight improvement compared to the levels seen throughout 2024. The strong quarterly result for the Group in Q2 is primarily driven by the Kaktus divestment, which was announced earlier in May, which we expect to contribute SEK 260m to Catella shareholder’s EBIT. For Corporate Finance, we anticipate a small negative earnings contribution in the quarter, SEK -11m (SEK -19m) in operating profit.
Minor negative tweaks to our 2025-'26 EBIT estimates We only make minor tweaks to our EBIT forecast, where we have reduced our variable income assumptions within Investment management for H2'25e and 2026e. In summary, this reduces our 2025 and 2026 EBIT estimates by 3-5%.
2025e-'27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x with a 5-8% dividend yield Catella has many attractive fundamentals, in our view, including a strong balance sheet, an impressive track record within Investment Management and intriguing own-property investments. Applying our latest revisions, Catella is trading at a 2025e-'27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x and offers an appealing dividend yield of 5-8% p.a. across our forecast horizon. In addition, we argue that the transaction activity outlook is positive from here and the comps are easy.
