While the improved profitability in '22e contributes to a much lower cash burn for the year (we estimate free cash flow of negative DKK 25.3m incl. leases), we have not extrapolated the higher profitability into '23e and '24e, as we consider the improvement in '22e to be mainly driven by one-offs. As such, we stick with our cautious short-term view in light of the high cash burn and continued cautious buying behaviour driving lower ARR growth. We still expect Penneo to return to higher ARR growth when the macro picture eventually normalises, as we remain positive about the long-term prospects given the impressive SaaS metrics historically, a quality product offering, and vast markets. However, we stick to our estimate of a need for a DKK 30m equity issue in '24e to allow for another round of growth investments.
Adjusted FVR of DKK 8-15/share on peer multiple expansion
Our DCF remains at DKK 15/share, while the lower end of DKK 8/share is lifted by higher DocuSign multiples.
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